November 4, 2021 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Big Clare | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Secret Square | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Taming the Tigress | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Buy Wave Buy | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bella D | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Warrens Candy Girl | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Mama Sue | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Donut Girl | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Defense Wins | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Adens Dream | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Itsthattime | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | P R Radio Star | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Black Storm | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Buttered Noodles | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tilted Towers | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cucina | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thanks Mr. Eidson | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Texas Wedge | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Comradery (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ultimate Bango | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kneedeepinsnow | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mikes Tiznow | 3.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Risk and Reward | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Proverb | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Surfing Star | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Trick | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Leading Score | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Zestful | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Let Freedom Rein | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hemmerle | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ice Maiden | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | She’s Got a Way | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Very Scary | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tezzaray (GB) | 3.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hardly Mischievous | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pretty Rena | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Saddle Up Jessie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lucky Girl (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sterling Crest (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | A Crown for Kitten | 15.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gimme Mo Baby | 4.00 | 13.5 | 25-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ghostem | 30.00 | 16.1 | 30-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Finding Silver | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Safe Combination | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fenestra | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Verracity | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | El Durango | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gerlach’s | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Divinium | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Humboldt | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Let It Ride S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Man Friday | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Team Merchants | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Petruchio | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crew Dragon | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lincoln Hawk (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coastal Kid | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sonic Brees | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Coulthard (IRE) | 3.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nerves of Steel | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 98 | Big Fish | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Big Stretch | 3.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Elgofranco | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Barbarius | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Listen to Blue | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Royal Blend | 4.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 98 | V Bucks | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 98 | Big Andy | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Ruthies Racer | 6.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chrome of Our Own | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Brio Is Awesome | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Secret Maneuver | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Prudent | 20.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lady Beyonce | 30.00 | 15.6 | 30-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.