November 4, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tiz the Journey | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hex | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zoffa | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | John E’s Cowboy | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Haney Boys | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Myuddermamasapaint | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Stud Puppy | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mahomes Money | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sir Acealot | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Helluva Life | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Excursion | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | El Casadora | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cypriano | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Icecap | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shippingport | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Convection | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Freerunning | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bubba Caballo | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Smart Time | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pretty Boy Elm | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Heffner | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wild Appeal | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lookinforexcitemen | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Zippin Gigi | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | American Chavo | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Marco Polo | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Leddy | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fireman Dan | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bruce On the Loose | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Commander Khai | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cowan | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shadow Matter | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flamingo Hawk | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sir Wellington | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bayou Gem | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Constitutional Law | 1.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tonal Impact | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ariston | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jimmy Dan | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sailor’s Return | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Warbird | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cool Runnings | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Drama | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Zumra Bayou | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Angitude | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shotgun Hottie | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Nanny’s a Hoot | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jams Top Shelf | 20.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fast Giselle | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Star Table | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Valeria | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Medley | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Blushable | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Romance | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Swanage | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saintsation | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Oopsy Daisy | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Forever | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bow Bow Girl | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Super Ready | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Floris | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Palm Cottage | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | La Tourista | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | English | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hindsight | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Social Dilemma | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mariah’s Princess | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fabricate | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny Isle Beach | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Motion Picture | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Koufax | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rogue Element | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fed Money | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Falcon Heavy | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Captain Fantastic | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Doctrinaire | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Out Work’n | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cartier Cat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.