November 3, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mama Lou | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dulcimer Dame | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beach House | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A Lot of Spunk | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Grace D’ Art | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ruby Lee | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Liznow | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Livermore | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Backyard Money | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Scintillating Star | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Annabella | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pout | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Emityaaz | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Arneis | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Joezine | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Eclipsed | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | She Stood by Me | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Shaniah | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Double Dawn | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Total Malice | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Breonna | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kewpie Doll | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Afleet Diva | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Natalies Charm | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Angkor | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trashtalkinyankee | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flags Up | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Notary | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Santa Cruiser | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Uber Kirk | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ceeky | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hugh B. | 30.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twobirdsonestone | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Venue | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | News Box | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Irish Hokie | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dontneedaname | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Taos | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Henny Hefner | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tumbling Sky | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Peruvian Boy | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mo’s Mojo | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Union | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Make Noise | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heart Rhythm | 1.20 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Absolute Chaos | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 9 | Koselio | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Zero to Onehundred | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Del Moon | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | The Judge and Jury | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Malibu Time | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Buckingham Prince | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Onyourmarkgetsetgo | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Carnivore | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Timeless Joke | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Behind the Curtain | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Grand Again | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Bruce On the Loose | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 6 | Royal Tryst | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Seaside Boy | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Minister | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Blake B. | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Hellorhighwater | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | French Toast | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Speightstown Again | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Westward Look | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Generator | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | All Bodes Well | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Road Bible | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Toccata | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Razor Glass | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vincaia | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Malloy | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Just Read It | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Feeling Mischief | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Farsighted | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Heart Full of Soul | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jimmy D | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Light the Way | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cabertoss | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gigging | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Botswana | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Artemus Eagle | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Go for Sherrie | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bless the Kitten | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Zanesville | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Double Tough Tiger | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Direct Approach | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Irish Declaration | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.