October 31, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rewire | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Underdressed | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blunder | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | King Curlin | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hitting Bombs | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Levy | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trademark | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Frosty Dreams | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Butterbean | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cost a Fortune | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz So Fine | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two for One | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Zip Zip | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scartini Martini | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Neith | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Implosion | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spiritcatcher | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | American Hero | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spartan Army | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Badgeball | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | O P Firecracker | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | East of India | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mean Jakey | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Winterwood | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Consort | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chasing Time | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Search Engine | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Heist | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Harmon Killer Brew | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ben Diesel | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Morning Thoughts | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ten Gauge | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Monologue | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Scattershack | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wake Surf | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Rags To Riches S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sandstone | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yuugiri | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mama Rina | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Manasota Sunset | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dressed | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Late Night Lady | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cupid’s Strike | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dunvegan Doll | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dreamworker | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Pauline | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Secret Oath | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Camaraderie | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blamethechampagne | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bicameral | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Cyclone | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | B Sudd | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wolfe County | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Raid | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | A C’s Analyzer | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | General Strike | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kinison | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Southern Sense | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ethereal Road | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bickell | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Unpredictable Bay | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seal Beach | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cyberknife | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rain Check | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Feeling Happy | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Taylor’s Secret | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zing | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Penny Saver | 1.20 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ring Me Darling | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mystique Saboteur | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hoist the Gold | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Silent Power | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blue Kentucky | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Legendary Lore | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Best of Cupid | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Texas Red Hot | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dr. Perry | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bonus Appreciation | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Play Action Pass | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Bouma | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Street Sense S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Red Knobs | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Skippylongstocking | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Guntown | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sport Pepper | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Howling Time | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Luni Sima | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Danger | 3.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kiss the Sky | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Boss | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Promises to Dance | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Aquila Moon | 8.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Elle of the Ball | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Liscolvin | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Old Pho | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Turn Up Da Jukebox | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ain’t Broke | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Marissa’s Lady | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bird Empress | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beautiful Empire | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | La Neblina | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Eclipsed | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Firewolves | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Parlance | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.