October 21, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hammerin Aamer | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Regal Quality | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Supreme Aura | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Playwright | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grit and Glory | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blewitt | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Direct Order | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Connecticut | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shutters | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bernardino | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mighty Meister | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Umbria | 2.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Brody | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Addicted to You | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | My Brother Neil | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Brew Pub | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Reunion Tour | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Yarrow | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Blitz to Win | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bohemian Ruby | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wudda U Think Now | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Munnings | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Scocciatore | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | South Africa | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Risk Profile | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mahaamel | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Semper Fidelis | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Amos | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Foxtail | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Atlas | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Five Alarm Robin | 2.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bee Bit | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flashing Red | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Peaches and Spice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 9 | Tiz Her Way | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Champagne Horizon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Lady by Choice | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dorsoduro | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Florida Gator | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Al’s Rocket | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Koosman | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Safalow’s Mission | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Doctor Davis | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Good Skate | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thrill of It | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | In Fact | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irie Spice | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Flop Shot (IRE) | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Winning Factor | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Farmington Road | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Value Engineering | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sand Dancer | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Journeyman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Shamrocket | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Limonite | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Constitutionlawyer | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fromanothamutha | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Donegal | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Sea | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Predicted | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Life Is Great | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Urban Forest | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vodka Mardini | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | R Boy Cheekum | 50.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Reconvene | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Mo Ready | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Bodecream | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Atone | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Attentive | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Soulmate | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ballagh Rocks | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Doswell | 2.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Summer to Remember | 4.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Croatian | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Marvelous Maude | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Home for Christmas | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unicorn Sally | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Masterof the Tunes | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pop the Bubbly | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sweet Franny Lu | 2.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Finest Work | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Miss Jen | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | English Breeze | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Raining Candy | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Caramocha | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Epona’s Dream | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.