October 17, 2021 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dominant Factor | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Correlate | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Silent Fire | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Attitude | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pride and Passion | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whizmo | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Magical | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Saint’s Rest | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Black Hills Bronco | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Music Tribute | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Vanbrugh | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carmenootz | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Won’t | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Coleyville | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Proliferate | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gigantic Breeze | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Native Prince | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Duke of Carthania | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Tricky Magician | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Light the Lamp | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Take Charge Gent | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Souper Rush | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Joe | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucys Child | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Why Not Bourbon | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Where Is Essa | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coo Bird | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baytown Elvis | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Victory Jet | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | Breathlessnthesand | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Knopfler | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Maximus Momentus | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lucas n’ Lori | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Carl G | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Veloce | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Selfmade | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Majestic Melody | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Souper Cohiba | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kitten’s Boy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lyrical Gangster | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Final Strike | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Lion’s Goldenheart | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Menagerie | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lisa Marie | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spooky Spice | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chardonnay | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Guileful | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Opal Creek | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sister Seagull | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hallanvaara | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Tara Tattoo | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Double Saw | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Yankee Joe | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Calm Down | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | J M R Jax | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ice Dancer | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Downtown Crumlin | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Love the Game | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Innocent Moves | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sailor’s Passion | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Candy Magic | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Walsingham | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Sweet Serenade | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Transient (GB) | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Admiring | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | November Fog | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Antigone | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bodacious Miss | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A Little Voodoo | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mopolka | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bayou Belle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – E. P. Taylor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kalifornia Queen (GER) | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Etoile (FR) | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mutamakina (GB) | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Great Island | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | La Dragontea (GB) | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Waliyak (FR) | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Court Return | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Merveilleux | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Keyflower (FR) | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Family Way | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Artie | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Clayton | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin to Strike | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lenny K | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Corsi | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Speedy Hans | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Magical Man | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Striking Moon | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Nearctic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Town Cruise | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Admiralty Pier | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | White Flag | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Olympic Runner | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Avie’s Flatter | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Curlin | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Turned Aside | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Reconfigure | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Jolie Olimpica (BRZ) | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Momos | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Frame This | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Wide Awake | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Our Ticket | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Musically Inclined | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cocotara | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kentucky Fan | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Roche’s Point | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Penetanguishene | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Twocankeepasecret | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Later Gator | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Let’s Have Fun | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Muchacha | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Shuddacuddawudda | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.