October 17, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Somes Sound | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smart Time | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Catipari | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shippingport | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Toobadsosad | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bold Adventure | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Supertaleofhoudini | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High Fair | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Itsy Bitsy Betty | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | One Fast Orb | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vietnam | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shellby | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | House Wrecker | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sentimental Cross | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Haughty | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancin Dee | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hardspun Woman | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Mercedes | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Macadamia (FR) | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Abstract Moment | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Missoni | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cailin Diana | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Candy Kick | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Most Empressive | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Emotional Intel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Azamana Empire | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Already Charming | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Zambak | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cold Call | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Gimme Mo Baby | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Capture the Glory | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Estilo Peligroso | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Oro de Tejano | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jack’s Advantage | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Distorted Ransom | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Anytimeallthetime | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Americain Joey | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baquero Flies | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dontneedaname | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Popizar | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Thirsty Betrayal | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Beverly Park | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Alex’s Strike | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Futile | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Artie’s Lady | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tumbling Sky | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Two Dot | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Weapon | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hugh B. | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Crime Spree | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Competitive Saint | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Goalie | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Souper Dormy | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shackleford’s Joy | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Midnight Patriot | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Mandate | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | League of Shadows | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Natural Power (IRE) | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seven Scents | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Huey Attack | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Major Wager | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Pretty Boy Elm | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Tohui | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Super Quick | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Frost Point | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Dame Cinco | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Ms V Time | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bow Bow Girl | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Trumpet Lilly | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Lily | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tellmeonasunday | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Distorted Verve | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sunny Isle Beach | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Champagne Toast | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Amalfi Princess | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Lady Edith | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Threatlevelmidnite (GB) | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | New Boss | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bullseye Beauty | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Risky Reward | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | No Mo’ Spending | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Farsighted | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Can’t Buy Love | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Prodigy Doll | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Spicy Marg | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Someone Said So | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 9 | Navratilova | 8.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Reid’s Fangirl | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Split Decision | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jerusalema | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ur Makin Me Blush | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dawson Springs | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jillian’s Star | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Zip Zip | 4.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Keino | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tinsel | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maysville Miss | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Daddy’s Trainer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Moon Over Tuscany | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | My Head Hurts | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Simply Complicated | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Joezine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Banned From Midway | 20.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.