Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 16, 2021

October 16, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Where’s Joey 8.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Risky Woods 2.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Dos Vaqueros 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Motion to Strike 4.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Mach One 1.60 3.6 7-1
3 3 Ocean Deep 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Beckenbauer 15.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Lemme Get It 15.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Can’t Catch Kacy 8.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Fontanafredda 2.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Rooski 10.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 My Cara Mia Mine 4.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Buffalo Dancer 12.00 4.9 9-1
15 15 Summer Snow 6.00 5 9-1
9 9 Cricket West 6.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 She’s a Natural 15.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Robyn and Eli 6.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Queens Dancer 15.00 8.2 15-1
13 13 Frosty Invasion 12.00 8.4 16-1
16 16 The Honorable Ruth 4.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 She’s a Mia 30.00 8.5 16-1
11 11 Thefabulous Moolah 30.00 8.5 16-1
14 14 Kant Hurry Love 1.60 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Villainous 1.40 1.7 3-1
5 6 Lost in Rome 2.50 2.3 4-1
7 8 Sharp Prospect 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 5 Artemus Bridge 10.00 2.7 5-1
6 7 Clear Vision 3.00 2.8 5-1
8 9 Seismic Wave 2.00 3.6 7-1
3 4 Bourbon in May 6.00 5.1 10-1
1A 2 Regal Quality 1.40 5.9 11-1
2 3 Smile Bryan 4.50 6 11-1
9 10 Parlor 15.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Big Al’s Gal 2.00 2.9 5-1
1A 9 Heart of God 3.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Wicked Amber 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 2 Briella 3.00 4.6 9-1
2 1 Shaker Shack 5.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Spun d’Etat 2.50 5.6 10-1
6 6 Effiemeister 20.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Mebs Web 20.00 6 11-1
5 5 Awesomenewyear 15.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Uncle’s Gem 3.00 1.3 3-1
4 4 Show Me the Honey 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Highway Queen 4.50 5 9-1
10 10 Happy Hill Lil 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Kreesa La Wrote 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Mashnee Girl 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Write This Down 10.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Jamaica Joy 15.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Stimulus Check 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Get the Candy 4.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Golden Oldie 20.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Sands Point S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Jordan’s Leo 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Higher Truth (IRE) 2.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Fluffy Socks 3.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Harajuku (IRE) 3.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Third Draft 30.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Our Flash Drive 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Runaway Rumour 8.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Plum Ali 8.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Road to Success 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Hoopla 4.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Matty’s Marauder 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Litterbox 4.50 5.1 10-1
3 3 Exxtop 30.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Cousin Andrew 2.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Scotty 20.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 American Gentleman 12.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Freedom Machine 3.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 A Ring Thing 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Gabby Squared 1.80 4.4 8-1
1 3 Adele Kat 10.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Summer in the City 2.00 7.3 14-1
1A 14 Emma and I 10.00 7.7 14-1
2 1 Athena Dancer 6.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Lucky Sitka 30.00 8 15-1
3 2 Creative Legacy 12.00 8.4 16-1
14 15 Seahorse d’Oro 2.50 8.7 17-1
8 8 Infringement 10.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 Khali Magic 12.00 9.4 18-1
4 4 Cherokee Song 8.00 10 19-1
9 9 Proper Grammar 30.00 12.1 23-1
10 10 Adriatic Rose 12.00 13 24-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Esotica 3.00 2 4-1
7 7 Mia Bea Star 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Raffinity 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Cinderella’s Cause 4.50 4.9 9-1
3 3 Stormi Cat Lady 12.00 5 9-1
5 5 Happy Sophia 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Mosienko 10.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Quantitativbreezin 2.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 New York Dancer 4.50 4.1 8-1
13 14 Gallina 2.00 4.5 8-1
3 2 New York Banker 12.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Phenomenal Woman 3.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Love’s Misery 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Lemon Taffy 8.00 6 11-1
6 6 Incontrovertible 12.00 6.1 12-1
1 3 Ethel’s Doctorate 30.00 6.9 13-1
2 1 Roxen 8.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Escapewithfriends 3.50 8.7 17-1
10 10 Tami’s Orchid 15.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 Early Edition 30.00 9.9 19-1
9 9 Barrel of Bliss 30.00 10 19-1
1A 13 Favorite Impulse 30.00 10.1 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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