Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 10, 2021

October 10, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dance Company 2.50 1.3 3-1
2 2 Per Diem 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Holiday Ticket 10.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 North Pole 3.50 3.4 6-1
6 6 Centurion 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 My Miracle Man 30.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Button Boy 3.50 5.8 11-1
3 3 Seattlesway 20.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Jazz Time Girl 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Trobairitz 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Requestforproposal 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Loved Reiko 12.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 High Meadows 15.00 4.5 9-1
11 11 Start Class 50.00 5 9-1
9 9 Spartina 20.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Mission Belle 5.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 Daisy Bee 8.00 9.5 18-1
5 5 Money Taker 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Candy Kick 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Dancin Dee 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Gimme Mo Baby 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Macadamia (FR) 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Bella Astern 30.00 10.5 20-1
8 8 Under One Sky 6.00 12.4 23-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 R Working Girl 2.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Docs Seven 5.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Assertive Style 4.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Shastaloo 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Alberta Sun 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Silver Cloud 5.00 5 9-1
7 7 Momma Rio 30.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Jill Babe 20.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sonnyneedsmoney 4.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Full Focus 2.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Surprising 12.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Poronui 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Coco Puff 3.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Off the Charts 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Academic Honor 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 A C Expressway 3.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 No Que No 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Critical Threat 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Amongst Friends 4.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Divine Leader 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Outlier 3.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Richy 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 I Hear You 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Longpants Required 3.50 2.5 5-1
8 7 Suki 3.50 3.6 7-1
11 10 Silky Warrior (IRE) 12.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Foolery 15.00 5 9-1
13 12 Charges Dropped 4.00 6.7 13-1
9 8 Sursum Corda 12.00 8 15-1
7 6 Runaway Mom 12.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Tammany 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Second Row Center 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Bow Bow Girl 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Trumpet Lilly 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Dance Recital 20.00 10.5 20-1
10 9 Social Dilemma 6.00 11.8 22-1
5 4 Miss Adeline 30.00 11.8 22-1
3 3 Ice Queen 20.00 13.9 26-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Manasota Sunset 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Let’s Be Clear 3.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Laura’s Charm 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Miz Jameson 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 All Luck 4.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Code for Success 3.50 6 11-1
4 4 Mabee Luckynwild 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Runnin Happy 20.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Averly Jane 0.80 1.9 4-1
2 1 Kaufymaker 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 2 Detroit City 30.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Pure Panic 15.00 2.9 5-1
5 4 Big Boss Ben 30.00 3 6-1
6 5 Bonus Appreciation 12.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Roman Poet 50.00 6.9 13-1
10 9 Diamond City 4.00 7.2 14-1
9 8 Circle Back Jack 50.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Sonnyisnotsofunny 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Juddmonte Spinster S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Letruska 0.80 1.6 3-1
5 5 Envoutante 6.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Crystal Ball 5.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Dunbar Road 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Bonny South 4.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Town Avenger 20.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 High Regard 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Castle & Key Bourbon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Tiz the Bomb 3.00 2.1 4-1
13 13 Lucky Boss 8.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Red Danger 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Martini’nmoonshine 10.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Stolen Base 10.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Heaven Street 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Credibility 20.00 4.5 8-1
14 14 Play Action Pass 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Waita Minute Hayes 30.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Dowagiac Chief 20.00 8 15-1
9 9 On Thin Ice 15.00 9.7 18-1
15 15 Vivar 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Red Run 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Fast N Steady 30.00 10.7 20-1
5 5 Rocket One 8.00 11.7 22-1
1 1 Brit’s Wit 30.00 14.2 27-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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