Sports from the Basement

Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 9, 2021

October 9, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Takemebythehand (GB) 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Leisurewear (IRE) 4.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Buy American 6.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Focaccina 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Buzz of New York (IRE) 1.80 3.4 6-1
1 1 Witch Moon 8.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Devil’s Messenger 15.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rookie Year 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Herd Immunity 2.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Silver Moon Road 1.60 3.1 6-1
4 4 Cumberland Avenue 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Club Cal 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Tacoflavoredkisses 8.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Cali Bay (IRE) 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Secret Weapon 12.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Sai Con (FR) 6.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Kazuhiko (AUS) 2.50 3 6-1
7 7 Flint Stroll 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Go On 3.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Jedi Master 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Encroachment 6.00 5 10-1
1 1 Paul Vincents Poem 30.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Straight Up G 1.80 1.1 2-1
1 1 Creative Peak 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Moose Mitchell 2.50 2 4-1
5 5 Slow Down Andy 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Mr Bug Z 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Medina Man 12.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lucky Girl (IRE) 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Peanut Butter Cup 4.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Very Scary 5.00 2 4-1
1 1 French Franc (FR) 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Let Freedom Rein 4.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Charlotte Harbor 20.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Wishing On a Star 10.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Macrelletta 30.00 7.7 15-1
12 12 K P Krypton 20.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Seven Exes 20.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 A Crown for Kitten 12.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Magical Sign 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Peripheral 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Fortunata Tensio 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stir the Pot 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Cunning Munnings 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Doc Adams 3.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Gordy’s Boy 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Intense 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 Ka’nah 1.80 4.7 9-1
2 2 Honorary Degree 12.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Swingtime S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Brooke (CHI) 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 5 Norma Jean B. 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 2 Avenue de France (FR) 5.00 2.9 6-1
4 3 Ippodamia’s Girl 3.50 4.2 8-1
9 7 England’s Rose 5.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Global Brand 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 6 Nasty 12.00 4.6 9-1
10 8 Quiet Secretary 6.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Cowboys Daughter 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Ellie Arroway 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Test Drive 5.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Sometimes Always 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Squalotoro 4.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Fun Coupons 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Hawk Hill 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Chasing Fame 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Honor Among Men 2.50 5 9-1
8 8 Pedro Perez 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 The Roan Ranger 15.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Surplus 4.00 4 8-1
2 2 Clem Labine 6.00 5.3 10-1
13 12 Bound to Bet 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Riding With Dino 5.00 5.6 11-1
12 11 El Diablo Rojo 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 10 Johnny Podres 3.50 7.1 13-1
1 1 I’ll Stand Taller 6.00 7.8 15-1
6 5 Single Me Out 20.00 8.1 15-1
7 6 Austin’s Boy 20.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Mischievous Path 20.00 8.6 16-1
5 98 Scary Fast Smile 0.00 SCRATCH
14 98 Baby Gronk 0.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Foothill 15.00 10 19-1
8 7 Seattle Breakout 15.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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