October 9, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Invisible War | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gold Bear | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Heat | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Blake B. | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Favorite Uncle | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Falcon Heavy | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | John E’s Cowboy | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Captain Fantastic | 5.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Early Wager | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Command Central | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | The Judge and Jury | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tapped Off | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | B Sudd | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Combat Medal | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kaely’s Brother | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Un Ojo | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trademark | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fast Giselle | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Liam the Brave | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Circle Back Jack | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Scarlet Fusion | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Orchestration | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Monition | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jarreau | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Evie’s Prince | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eye of the Cat | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | El Ahijado | 50.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | No Slo Mo | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Modus Operandi (IRE) | 6.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kittansett | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Eye Black | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Time for Trouble | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Capt. Maestri | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Britain’s Kitten | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Elusive Target | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tuanis | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baladi | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Red Label | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rich Strike | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sport Pepper | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Switzer | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strava | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Classic Moment | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | It’s a Bang Bang | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Beartoe | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stealth Fighter | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jack Backed | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Jackys Back | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | O P Firecracker | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Leslie Chow | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Woodford S. Presented By Tvg
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Firecrow | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Extravagant Kid | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Pal | 0.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | County Final | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Inhalation (GB) | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Johnny Unleashed | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charcoal | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Thoroughbred Club Of America S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Estilo Talentoso | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Club Car | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Mosaic | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frank’s Rockette | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Inthemidstofbiz | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bell’s the One | 1.40 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – First Lady S. Presented By Uk Healthcare
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Regal Glory | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Blowout (GB) | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hendy Woods | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | La Signare (FR) | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Empress Josephine (IRE) | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Abscond | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Star Command | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Viadera (GB) | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Harvey’s Lil Goil | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Althiqa (GB) | 3.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Daddy Is a Legend | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dalika (GER) | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Princess Grace | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Great Escape | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Classic Causeway | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rattle N Roll | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Double Thunder | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | American Sanctuary | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Don’t Wait Up | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Kevin’s Folly | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stellar Tap | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mac’s Time | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Costa Terra | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | King Curlin | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Bouma | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Seal Beach | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Keeneland Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Pixelate | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Somelikeithotbrown | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ivar (BRZ) | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Argentello (IRE) | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Order of Australia (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Diamond Oops | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Front Run the Fed | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Brown Storm (CHI) | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | In Love (BRZ) | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tell Your Daddy | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Space Traveller (GB) | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Field Pass | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Giant Game | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Gilded Age | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon On Fire | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me Midnight | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jolly Tommy | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lookwhogotlucky | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Norgay | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Surfer Dude | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Let My People Go | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Long Crow | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hitting Bombs | 4.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.