October 8, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Swanage | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I’ll Make It Coach | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coinmaker | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Katie’s Karat | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Ready | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gingrich | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Steinbeck | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rum ‘n Tonic | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wake Surf | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Star Shopping | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Afternoon Anejo | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Overanalytical | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Minnesota Ready | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Watch the Music | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rule the Empire | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | He’s a Angel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Prayforpeace | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Win for the Money | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | East of India | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Magilla | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Faith Runner | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 5 | Nietzsche | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Double Tough Tiger | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Cabertoss | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Irish Declaration | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Family Man | 1.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Altito | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Allen | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Town Classic | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spycraft | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Bella Brown | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Don’t Forget | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Saturday | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Man Flintstone | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon and Diem | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | About Our Time | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Holding Fast | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Heart Rhythm | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Katzarelli | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vulcan | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Savvy | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rob the Rich | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Peruvian Boy | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crime Spree | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brad’s Time | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Social Matrix | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Halo of Fire | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fannie and Freddie | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Funny Business | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twirling Savi | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Thedevilyousay | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Arsinoe | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Girls House | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Little Lara | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Maresias | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two for One | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Camaraderie | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fast Giselle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cavalry Charge | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Beacon Hill | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dynadrive | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Crossfirehurricane | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kentucky Ghost | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Benelux | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Americanus | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Valid Point | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Hemp Hemp Hurray | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Split the Wickets | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nobrag Justfact | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Fighting Seabee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sir Alfred James | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mucho | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aloha West | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Endorsed | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Special Reserve | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Just Might | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Quick Tempo | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Darley Alcibiades S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Juju’s Map | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Matareya | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Distinctlypossible | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Interpret | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Lith | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Runup | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Penny Saver | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pipeline Girl | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mama Rina | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sequist | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Diamond Wow | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Myfavoritedaughter | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Red Hornet | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Frenchboro | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Camp Hope | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Modern Science (IRE) | 3.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | News Break | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Wing Commander | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Buy Me Candy | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bern N Ash | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seven Channels | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | El Ahijado | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Scarlet Fusion | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | No Slo Mo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Monition | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Evie’s Prince | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Assiduously (GB) | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Nathan Detroit | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.