Sports from the Basement

Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 3, 2021

October 3, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Unzip Me S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Zero Tolerance 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Burgoo Alley (IRE) 3.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Carpe Fortuna 5.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Brilliant Cut 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Thrilling 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Equilove (IRE) 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Miss Costa Rica 12.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Hamwood Flier (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Street Ruckus 2.00 2 4-1
6 6 Prince Abama (IRE) 1.80 2.6 5-1
1 1 Offlee Naughty 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Rio Ocho (IRE) 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 American Great 10.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Lone Scout 3.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 I’m a Giraffe 2.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Jacrodra’s Devil 2.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Empire Pass 2.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Spinning Plates 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Never Sway 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Sangre Azul 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mohawk King (IRE) 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Lane Way 3.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Commander Khai 5.00 4 8-1
1 1 Fly the Sky 6.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Newpark (IRE) 8.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 First Prez 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Gregory’s Pride 6.00 7.1 14-1
8 8 Cherubic Factor 6.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Elusive Treat (GB) 12.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Rookie Mistake 15.00 SCRATCH
11 98 Star Racer 0.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Fight On 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Chillingworth S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Scotish Star (ARG) 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Proud Emma 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Ce Ce 1.20 2.5 5-1
4 4 On Deck 15.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Eyes Open 20.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Bella Vita 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Warrens Candy Girl 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Secret Square 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Big Clare 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Del Mar Flash 6.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Eddie’s New Dream 4.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Big Mama Sue 15.00 5 9-1
2 2 Unusual Ride 15.00 5 9-1
8 8 Lena’s Big Day 12.00 8 15-1
5 5 Big Stretch 15.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Winning Map 1.60 1.1 2-1
1 1 Sir London 2.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Marco Polo 3.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Big Wave James 8.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 No Limitation 10.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Katonah 20.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Clampett 12.00 5 10-1
7 7 Don’t Swear Dave 10.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Zuma Beach S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Silver Surfer (GB) 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Thirty Four Coupe 4.00 2 4-1
4 4 Mackinnon 1.60 2.4 5-1
3 3 Picota (GB) 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Il Capitano 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Aquitania Arrival 15.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Carbonite 20.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Law Abiding 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Birth of Cool 30.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 La Deuxieme Etoile 15.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Zenyatta S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 As Time Goes By 2.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Private Mission 2.50 2.1 4-1
8 8 Stellar Sound 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 California Kook 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Miss Bigly 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Samurai Charm 10.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Lady Kate 8.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Miss Stormy D 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Surfer Girl S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Helens Well (IRE) 3.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Liam’s Dove 5.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Saturday Nite Girl 8.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Cairo Memories 5.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Dolly May (IRE) 8.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Sterling Crest (IRE) 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Hemmerle 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Miss Bellatrix 20.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Brandon’smylawyer 6.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 It’s Simple 12.00 6 11-1
8 8 Sax 20.00 7.2 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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