October 2, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 3 | Crump | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Cody’s Wish | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Extreme | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Ghostlore | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Cool Rags | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sanctified | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Tonal Impact | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | Tartufo | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Doctrinaire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Six Pack | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oncoming Train | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Nick | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Excursion | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | All Bodes Well | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American Unity | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Feature | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Knowing Glance | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Four Dawn | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Devilly | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Not So Close | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Put a Bow On It | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Surf Spa | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Joy in the Battle | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | U So Money Baby | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Megan’s Clara | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | On the Rise | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Supertaleofhoudini | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Front Street | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lets Go All Theway | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Villareggia | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Chapeau | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hail to Helen | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Father G | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bebop Shoes | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tkotchke | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grove Daddy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Catipari | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Bird | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Suspect | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Hippodrome | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | In Dreams | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dr. Perry | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Seven Flat | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mean Jakey | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Achilles | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Masquerade Ball | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Badgeball | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Scratchoff | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sacred Samurai | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mizzen Man | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jackys Back | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Behind the Curtain | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Trafalgar | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Brigadier General | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wolfe County | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Unpredictable Bay | 8.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mahoney Road | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Chileno | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Monologue | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Driven One | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Almuahed | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Scattershack | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 13 | Baltic Fleet | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Dream Island | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Knowhowiknow | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Order of the Day | 15.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Lukas Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Knicks Go | 0.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tacitus | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Independence Hall | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sprawl | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shared Sense | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chess Chief | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Velvet Crush | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Portal Creek | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Himiko | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grand Cru Classe | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jilted Bride | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | She Can’t Sing | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rising Seas | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Recoded | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Compelling Smile | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Secretly Wicked | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Ack Ack S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Beau Liam | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rushie | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Plainsman | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exculpatory | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | South Bend | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Dumas | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Mosa | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Atoka | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Guest Suite | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ebben | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Aloha West | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Laughing Boy | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Calibrate | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Runnin’ Ray | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amani’s Eagle | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gentle Soul | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Cheffy | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Carillo | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Decision Maker | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Corrado | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Happy American | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Island Boy | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | First Line | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Palace Coup | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Blanket of Roses | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.