October 1, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Speed Zone | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jump Into the Fire | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tribord | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Brody Slam | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sunset At Mallory | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | On My Own | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flirtatious Kitty | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mini Dress | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Asia Asia | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cove Blue | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Queens Jules | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | News Box | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frolic More | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rock On Kitten | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Taos | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fire Marshall Bill | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ship It | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oopsy Daisy | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fortuna Adiuvat | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shaniah | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fine Prospecture | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blossom Road | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Taptime | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Machismo | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Morocco | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eskenforit | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alexandros | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brother Aaron | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lost in Limbo | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mo’s Mojo | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Meataball | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1A | 12 | Sharp Joe | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 8 | Rowley’s Dream | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Rooster Run | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mackenzie’s Novva | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Shadyfied | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Bucky Bik Coin | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Ashwins Orb | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Vidal | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Then We’ll Be Good | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 7 | Dox Biz | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Kissalot | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Nakatomi | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Freelancer | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chattalot | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Kentucky | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vodka N Water | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | American Chaos | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Baytown Frosty | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Magician Stone | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gormleys Got Game | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Our Souper Love | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Old Pho | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Delightof the Nile | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Fast and Flirty | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Justastar | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Legerity | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Princess Pauline | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fine Family | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jaccaci | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rhubarb Martini | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Little Lara | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jalebi Baby | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Grind | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Giddy Up Zoey | 50.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Major Fed | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tune In | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hop Kat | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Briefcase Bully | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Starrininmydreams | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Claytnthelionheart | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Splash | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shortlist | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jungle Warfare | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Seneca Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Crazy Beautiful | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Played Hard | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Illiogami | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oliviaofthedesert | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moon Swag | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Time for Glory | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Double Dawn | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | He’s Pretty Lucky | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rye Humor | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sky Temple | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big in the City | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Banyan | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Weapon | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Helluva Life | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Signsofawarrior | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Flattery | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.