October 1, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | I Love Jaxson | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Durkin’s Call | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Binkster | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dark Money | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sicilia Mike | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dream Bigger | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Federalist Papers | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Single Soul (GB) | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vividly (GB) | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Double Blessed | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Bad Diva | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Baseline Drive | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Traffic Song | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 7 | Empire Lily | 0.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Grannys Connection | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Twist Just Right | 0.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Caragate | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Laochi | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Inkblot | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Captainsdaughter | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cazilda Fortytales | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bellamy’spartygirl | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Alex | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweeter | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cause to Dream | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hollywood Gina | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hey It’s Tati | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mission Trail | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Mission | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Command Point | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ocean Air | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magnetique | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Exotic West | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Franny Lu | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Amiko Chow (IRE) | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Linny Kate | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Claddagh’s Run | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Suspended Campaign | 3.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Barista Vixen | 4.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Caramocha | 10.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Harper’s in Charge | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Sparkling Sky | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Love And Thunder (IRE) | 1.80 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stolen Holiday | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Thrill | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Magisterium (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Silver Strand | 1.40 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Screamin’ By | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jades Gelly | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rivendell | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shaker Shack | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cost Basis | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | T Loves a Fight | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Always Sunshine | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Drafted | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Phil | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Answer In | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Newbomb | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – John Hettinger S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dancing Kiki | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pecatonica | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ice Princess | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Classic Lady | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Make Mischief | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cara’s Dreamer | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Two Cent Tootsie | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Myhartblongstodady | 1.60 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Suit of Armor | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 10 | El Mayor | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Athenry | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Sir William | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Citizen K | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | On the Dean’s List | 50.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Smoke | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | B C Glory Days | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zap Man | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | King Moonracer | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Giramonte | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Stonecoldwarrior | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Kaden | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heroneandonly | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Yarrow | 4.50 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Remembermom | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.