Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 1, 2021

October 1, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 I Love Jaxson 5.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Durkin’s Call 4.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Binkster 2.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Dark Money 2.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Sicilia Mike 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Dream Bigger 3.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Federalist Papers 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Single Soul (GB) 2.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Vividly (GB) 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Double Blessed 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Big Bad Diva 12.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Baseline Drive 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Traffic Song 8.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 7 Empire Lily 0.80 1 2-1
5 4 Grannys Connection 4.00 1.1 2-1
1 5 Twist Just Right 0.80 1.2 2-1
2 1 Caragate 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Laochi 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 2 Inkblot 20.00 3.4 6-1
4 3 Captainsdaughter 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cazilda Fortytales 1.60 2.5 5-1
1 1 Bellamy’spartygirl 20.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Miss Alex 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Sweeter 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Cause to Dream 6.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Hollywood Gina 3.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Hey It’s Tati 4.50 5.9 11-1
2 2 Mission Trail 15.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sweet Mission 10.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Command Point 3.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Ocean Air 3.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Magnetique 6.00 6 11-1
3 3 Exotic West 4.50 6.4 12-1
6 6 Sweet Franny Lu 8.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Amiko Chow (IRE) 15.00 8 15-1
4 4 Linny Kate 6.00 9 17-1
10 10 Claddagh’s Run 12.00 9 17-1
12 12 Suspended Campaign 3.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Barista Vixen 4.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Caramocha 10.00 9.8 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Harper’s in Charge 3.50 4.4 8-1
11 11 Sparkling Sky 15.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Love And Thunder (IRE) 1.80 4.9 9-1
7 7 Stolen Holiday 4.00 5 9-1
9 9 Thrill 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Magisterium (IRE) 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Silver Strand 1.40 5.4 10-1
2 2 Screamin’ By 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Jades Gelly 20.00 7 13-1
5 5 Rivendell 10.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Shaker Shack 10.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cost Basis 2.50 2 4-1
1 1 Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) 4.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 T Loves a Fight 10.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Always Sunshine 3.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Drafted 15.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Mr Phil 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Answer In 3.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Newbomb 10.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – John Hettinger S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dancing Kiki 3.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Pecatonica 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Ice Princess 3.50 3.2 6-1
9 9 Classic Lady 2.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Make Mischief 2.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Cara’s Dreamer 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Dancingwthdaffodls 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Two Cent Tootsie 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Myhartblongstodady 1.60 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Suit of Armor 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 El Mayor 15.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Athenry 15.00 4.2 8-1
14 14 Sir William 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Citizen K 3.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 On the Dean’s List 50.00 5 9-1
5 5 War Smoke 4.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 B C Glory Days 8.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Zap Man 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 King Moonracer 12.00 6.8 13-1
13 13 Giramonte 8.00 7.6 14-1
16 16 Stonecoldwarrior 6.00 7.6 14-1
15 15 Kaden 12.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Heroneandonly 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Yarrow 4.50 10.1 19-1
9 9 Remembermom 30.00 11.1 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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