September 30, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tayet | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Palm Court | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Run With Grace | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Epicurean | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Make Me Laugh | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Forgot Password | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Steely Danza | 2.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kingsten’s Gold | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Out Work’n | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Incitatus | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Enraged | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | What the Elle | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Barkman | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sutton’s Cat | 1.60 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dream On It | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Johnnyslittlegirl | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A Wish for Trish | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Soddy Daisy | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brash | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dressedtoimpress | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Offensive Charge | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Absolute Love | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gianna’s Gift | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kasserine Pass | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Social Circle | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Indian Bella | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Wynter Rose | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bow Maker | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mr Creed | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bellinger | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Crazy Genius | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bet | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kendall Square | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hero Dragon | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tizabigmick | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spend Again | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sparkle of Hope | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Point Wild | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Glamour Girl | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Forever | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blushable | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Family Time | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Crimson Rose | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sol Dorado | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | California Angel | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Queens Up | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mercury Head | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tizplenty | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mystique Saboteur | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mollie Kate | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet N Sassy | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smile At the Storm | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gorman | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cant Stop This Man | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | B Maker | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Road Bible | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Al Millon Bob | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Futuro | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bassett | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thunder Ahead | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sonic Burn | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hex | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.