Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 26, 2021

September 26, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Stunning Munnings 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Escape Fund 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Well Spent 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Nostalgia 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Sapphire Royalty 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Breonna 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Clear Steps 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Yogurt 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Carmichael 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Captain Fantastic 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Royal Tryst 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Biko 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Dover Strait 10.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Koufax 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Per Diem 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Outlier 3.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Ultimate 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Chicks for Free 4.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Davidic Line 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Press Snooze 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Bold Adventure 8.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Cold as Hell 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Royal Blue Boy 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Futile 2.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Lover Boy 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Popizar 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Ceeky 8.00 4 8-1
7 7 Red Blue and True 15.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Red Alert 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Distorted Ransom 15.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Brew Crew 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Auburn Hills 2.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Hombrazo 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 Treasury 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Fra Mauro 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Hanks 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Perfect Cut 10.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Alkhaatam 4.00 2.4 5-1
2 1 Lord Dragon 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 The Stiff 4.50 2.8 5-1
4 3 Indimaaj 3.50 3.2 6-1
5 4 Markitoff 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 6 Pit Boss 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Hanalei’s Houdini 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Amusing Antics 3.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Toccata 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Flash Magic 1.80 2.3 4-1
2 2 Latte Dolce 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Congratulated 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Sweet Queen Bee 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Madera 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Famed 3.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Mommasgottarun 2.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 Howboutdemapples 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Beautiful Empire 6.00 3.7 7-1
9 8 Spring Magic 12.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 Winter Love 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 High Speed 15.00 6.2 12-1
8 7 Sweet Dani Girl 20.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Sugar Boo 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Core Beliefs 4.00 2 4-1
7 7 Trident Hit 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Fact Finding 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Beaver Hat 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Bourbon Calling 4.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Spa City 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Royal Mesa 10.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Upandcomingstar 3.00 2.8 5-1
12 12 Sarah Harper 2.50 3.2 6-1
8 8 Anna Volante 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Smarmy 3.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Dalida 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Aidanike 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Make Her Day 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Bitter Vixen 15.00 7 13-1
11 11 Music App 15.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Lady Clementine 20.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Miss McBride 20.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Catalan 30.00 8.6 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.