September 25, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cousin Greg | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Climb and Maintain | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rumble Strip Ron | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Exclaim | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magic Shot | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ginnsu Warrior | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hoistthemainsail | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Oxxon | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flash of Promise | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mahomes Money | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | O Dogg | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cypriano | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Farzin | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Cousteau | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cool Quest | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Elite Power | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Racarino | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Emperador | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Here Mi Song | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gulfstream Way | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sprinklehead | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Saracosa | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cheetara (CHI) | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Istan Council | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Final Cut | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Teenage Kicks | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Resurrection Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sally’s Curlin | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Baja Fog | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Freudian | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blest Life | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cha | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American Reality | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Jerusalema | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dawson Springs | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lace Revolution | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Grandma B | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Giddy Gootz | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cowan | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rockstar Ro | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On Your Mark | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Critical Threat | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Edge to Edge | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiberius Mercurius | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Abundant | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spankhurst | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fallen Empire | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cyberknife | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hoist the Gold | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fast Lane | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cloudy | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Devil’s Glen | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Silent Disco | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beeasy | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coffee With Alex | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Speed Rail | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Dogwood S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Carribean Caper | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Patty H | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malloy | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shesa Mystery | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coppelia | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Someone Said So | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Li’l Tootsie | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bourbon Trail S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dr Jack | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | King Fury | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gagetown | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Thunder | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sermononthemount | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | King’s Ovation | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Angkor | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Harrods Creek S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Irish Unity | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dreamer’s Disease | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Emerald Forest | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | He’smyhoneybadger | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wolfie’s Dynaghost | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bob’s Edge | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shadow Matter | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Everett’s Song | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ram | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Flags Up | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Back to Normal | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chasing Time | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Federal Hill | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Leddy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brawndo | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Howling Time | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | I’m a War Lord | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Osbourne | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yasuke | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.