Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 25, 2021

September 25, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Galahad Kid 10.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Bullion 6.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 President Elect 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Pocket Player 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Storminside 3.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Talis Park Grad 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Splash for Gold 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 One Putt Richie 3.50 6.8 13-1
5 5 Virga 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Pitaman 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Just the Facts 8.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Hannity 8.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Andreas 4.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Dollar Blue 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Remember the Maine 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Fleetway 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Frankincense 3.50 5.7 11-1
7 7 Tap the Mojo 20.00 6 11-1
9 9 Half of Manhattan 4.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stopshoppingamy 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Sense of Self 3.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Field Letters 3.50 5.9 11-1
2 2 U. S. Currency 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Ghaaleb’s Appeal 8.00 7.7 14-1
10 10 Flying Business 20.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Seven Seventeen 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Hey Hey 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Satiate 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tiz Susan Ann 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Honey Mug 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Emily Bug 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Kyleigh’s Candy 15.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Bella Union 15.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Wicked Intent 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Bonkers 3.50 4.5 9-1
11 11 Eden 4.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 Maid of Honor 3.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Lizqueenfluerdelis 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Stacy Attack 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Goshen Girl 30.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Blarney Girl 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Morrie’s Joy 10.00 9.5 18-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Maximus Image 30.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Tale of the Nile 4.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Ride Into the Sky 6.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Deano 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Fort Ridge 10.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Will Knows 4.00 6 11-1
11 11 Offlee Fun 15.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Dumbmark 15.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Shanghai Point 12.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 Southsider 10.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Diddley 15.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Nyoman 3.50 10.3 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Oeuvre 4.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Shezz Koldazice 15.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Lady Clare 10.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Isle of Grace 10.00 3 6-1
8 8 Safe Travels 15.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Clever Kitten 20.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Freedom Rose 3.50 5 9-1
1 1 Miss Z 6.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Journeyist 6.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Niff 8.00 7 13-1
2 2 Lizy D 15.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Fabulous Philly 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bella Prima 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 You Split Tens 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Lost in Manhattan 4.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Get Hammered 2.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Finnegan (IRE) 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Hurricane Highway 6.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Follow the Signs 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Trappe Valley 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Olson 20.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Souper Highvoltage 8.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Mkar the Fast 20.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 Rip It Ryan 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Morriston 20.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Cowboys Dream 15.00 2.3 4-1
10 9 Convict Pike 1.80 2.4 5-1
5 4 Cosmic Treasure 6.00 4.6 9-1
11 10 Gagoots 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Overpraise 10.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Upham 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Cloud to Ground 8.00 6.7 13-1
6 5 Mister Charming 20.00 7 13-1
3 3 Dramatic Kitten 6.00 7.4 14-1
9 8 Grand Hideaway 15.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 Pleasant Moon 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Majestic Day 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Morethansoultitle 8.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Yalikeanything 20.00 12.7 24-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Dawn’s Dancer 2.50 4 8-1
8 8 Mary of Bethany 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Cowgirl Kimmie 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Sister Ruler 12.00 6 11-1
12 12 Manhattan Legacy 30.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Luscious 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Juju’s Specialgirl 3.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Savvy Ally 15.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Chrome Attack 10.00 9.6 18-1
13 13 Table One 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Fine Prospecture 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Belle Brezing 6.00 10.5 20-1
1 1 Fox Frey 20.00 10.8 20-1
10 10 Golden Command 15.00 10.8 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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3rd - 11:09
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3rd - 11:02
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