September 23, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Poseidon Wrath | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tap Attack | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Thirtyeight | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kolsch | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bassett | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Consider | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Priest | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blind Justice | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Convection | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Petit Verdot | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tomato Bill | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Schochoh | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Inventing Blame | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toobadsosad | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carbon Stryker | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hyland Haven | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Madam Pie | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Pharoah Lady | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Palace Magic | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | As You Were | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Norma Gex | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I’m Stylin | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beyond a Million | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spitz | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Shotgun Hottie | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Implosion | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Hot Mama | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Keino | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frosted Charm | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Feeling Happy | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tinsel | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Pickin Ana Grinnin | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vicarious Lady | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Secret Melody | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amaristar | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gimme Some Mo | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moliere | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | All West | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | See the Pyramids | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eastside Cool | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cave Hill | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cancellara | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Vasariano | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Just a Irish Lad | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Blunder | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Commander Compton | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Bon Bueno | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ten Gauge | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Condemn | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rattle N Roll | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Ignitis | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Gilded Age | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Harmon Killer Brew | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Luni Sima | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Newt | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mahoney Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Russian Tank | 50.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Happiness | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Reagan’s Edge | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sterling Miss | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Southern Mama | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Windmill | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Break Curfew | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tipsy Gal | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Larimar | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Scintillating Star | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Waters of Merom | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bhoma | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Medley | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tubman | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Senorita Karlita | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Bugg’s Girl | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zumra Bayou | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Swap Shop | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sonador | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Terra | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.