September 23, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Devious Mo | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Casalsa | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Sobreviviente | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | True Palace | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quintarelli | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Golani Brigade | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Curbstone | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Napa Valley | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Street Vendor | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Daunt | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fort Washington | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paratus | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flip the Script | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Exclusive Order | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Knightly Mischief | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 8 | Wicked Bobby | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Unbridled Bomber | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Mahaamel | 0.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Treason | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Full Court Press | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chowda | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Will Sing for Wine | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Arham | 0.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Outrageous Bet | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Legit | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jack the Cat | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Noble Thought | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rocking the Boat | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Parlor | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Easy Shot | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boru | 4.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Acker | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | South Sea | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cantrell Hill | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dark Storm | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Juggler | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sundaeswithsandy | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kingham Hill | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Toga Dancer | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maseta | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Convertible Freeze | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Excursionniste | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Montego Bay Circle | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sir John | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Something Majestic | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kingdom On Paws | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Regal Empire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Silvermill | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Resilient Courage | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Miracle Nicky | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bossmakinbossmoves | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Actuary (GB) | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Turn of Events | 3.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Determined Fury | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bar Fourteen | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Montatham | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | Charlie Five O | 4.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Subsidize | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Stanhope | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Our Troubadour | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Him She Kisses | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 15 | Boldish | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 16 | Purple Hearted | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Restored Order | 8.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Montauk Summer | 4.50 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ring of Fire | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Big Wonder | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | V Pattern | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Got the Gold | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Seizer | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Brody | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scherzando | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Big Castle | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Capt’ Remington | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Little Risk | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blitz to Win | 1.20 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Write This Down | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Get the Candy | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Time Lady | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jamaica Joy | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Highway Queen | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tis a Pity | 4.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kreesa La Wrote | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Social Whirl | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | No Payne | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mashnee Girl | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 15 | Chasing Cara | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 16 | Caramocha | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 13 | Rosey’s Peach | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 14 | Jen’s Battle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Blame It On Mary | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Stimulus Check | 20.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | King James | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | More Like It | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | K. K. Ichikawa | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Loaded Joe | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elusive Edge | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yankee Empire | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bardolino | 6.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Halpert | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mommie’s Jewel | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fifty Sheas Ofgrey | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mucho Sunshine | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Road to Success | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cousin Andrew | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Good Culture | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Disciplanarian | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Magnificent Chrome | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.