September 19, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sailor’s Return | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Scat Shack | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blake B. | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Seaside Boy | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eagle Cap | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Elvirus | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Drama | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Myuddermamasapaint | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Shi O’Shi | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Parking Ticket | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cabo Dorado | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marcie’s Candy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dixieland Dream | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Skyvalue | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Bow Maker | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Showit | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wild Appeal | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ingersoll | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prince of Glory | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Florida Gator | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Joe | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Rumble Ready | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Undecoded | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Laughing Boy | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mount Kenya | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chrome Republic | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Country Captain | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prioritization | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Marvelousmoondance | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vail of Honor | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Greener Pastures | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Knox | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | War Savvy | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Violent Pass | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oncoming Train | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Khozan’s Success | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Brew Crew | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Leading West | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pelota | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Windcracker | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Abdan | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Southerner | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gunner Paul | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Heat | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dinner Bell | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lend It Tewmey | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rousing Siren | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Steely Danza | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hennys Crazy Train | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Connie K | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Duplicitous | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Town Beauty | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Is Zippy | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Anthropology | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Brooklynn’s Dabomb | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Saving Sophie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Full Focus | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Out Dancing | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | La Bombonera | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cancel This | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rain Check | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Off the Charts | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Surprising | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Coco Puff | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gin N Sin | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Dreamalot | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Start Class | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Summer Autumn Rose | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Town Avenger | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Traveler | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mucho Macho Momma | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trumpet Lilly | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thirteen Stripes | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gypsy Touch | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tellmeonasunday | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | My My Munny | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Roc’s Princess | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Moonchild | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Lea | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Quick | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Viva La Red | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Missy | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lemon’s Medaglia | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Girls | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Candy Anne | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.