September 18, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Until Now | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Blend | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dulcimer Dame | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Her Giant | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ronan | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blonde by Nature | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kojo’s Queen | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pickford | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Taos | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rockandahardplace | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Exemplar | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Urbanite | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rare Form | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chicory Blue | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Brodytheoxman | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Jerrid | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Open Mind S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sconsin | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ain’t No Elmers | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mundaye Call | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bell’s the One | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Star Alignment | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Camp David | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Search Engine | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | General Strike | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Legendary Lore | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Baton | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Norgay | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mumayaz | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fightville | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sacred Midnight | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bloodline | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Great Escape | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seal Beach | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Yono | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Epicenter | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hitting Bombs | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Surfer Dude | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Giant Game | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Call Me Midnight | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Runquietly | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Us | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Itsy Bitsy Betty | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Laura’s Angle | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Coralena | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Peyton’s College | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sua Sorella | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Inspeightful | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Total Malice | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Soulcraft | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shaniah | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Midway’s Angel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Eden | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | On My Own | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Louisville Thoroughbred Society S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bango | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Just Might | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mighty Mischief | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dennis’ Moment | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Derby Date | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Endorsed | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Pocahontas S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ontheonesandtwos | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maxine Machine | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hidden Connection | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Goddess of Fire | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lemieux | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kneesnhips | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic d’Oro | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Joyrunner | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mama Rina | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Code for Success | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Chamita | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Iroquois S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Major General | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stellar Tap | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Guntown | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bourbon Heist | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Roger McQueen | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strike Hard | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Magnolia Midnight | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Husband Material | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tough to Tame | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Red Knobs | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Boss | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Locust Grove S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Shedaresthedevil | 0.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crystal Ball | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Envoutante | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Our Super Freak | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Matera | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Regard | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Kate | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jennings | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flint Ridge | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Motagally | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Regular Guy | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Arabian Prince | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Notary | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Excession | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Runway Magic | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sono Grato | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Belafonte | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.