Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 18, 2021

September 18, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Birdman Richie 1.40 1.4 3-1
6 6 Star On the Map 4.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Hour Cat 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Izu Iz Or Izu Aint 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Meataball 4.50 3.6 7-1
2 2 Bourbon Delight 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Morethansoultitle 1.60 1.5 3-1
2 2 Last Spring 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Final Call 5.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Copper Crossing 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Will Ya Win Sum 2.00 5 9-1
5 5 Lee La Dew 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Launch Away 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Lion Love 10.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Stormy Empire 12.00 3 6-1
7 7 Perfect Diva 15.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Romantic Attack 4.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Risky Risky Risky 5.00 4 7-1
3 3 Summer Day 1.60 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Beau Noir (IRE) 4.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Embodiment 6.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Winter’s Ghost 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Dream Island 15.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Dare Goes Da Devil 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Jim and Jim 20.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Wonderstruck 1.80 5.3 10-1
4 4 Sport Pepper 3.50 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Powerful Man 8.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Devil’s Rule 2.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Offlee Fun 3.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Abuelo Nuno 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 River Finn 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Crankshaft 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Renegade Bob 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Talis Park Grad 4.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Piece of My Heart 6.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Music City Star 10.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Ms Sassy Atitude 20.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Gray Owl 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Oh So Terrible 15.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Mom’s Red Lipstick 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Richies Great Girl 1.60 4.7 9-1
6 6 She Can’t Sing 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Power Cry 20.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Marco’s Dream 6.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 W W Kan Do 3.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Oncewewerebrothers 10.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Mongol Bull 2.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Greeleys Ice 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Contraction 20.00 5 9-1
9 9 Boom Box 4.50 5.8 11-1
5 5 Goneghost 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stormin El Prado 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Day in the Country 12.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Bee Happy Attack 20.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Agave Kid 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Rahfee Town 15.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Demand Ransom 8.00 5 9-1
4 4 Bora Bora 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Givin Up None 3.50 6.1 12-1
8 8 Pitaman 1.40 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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