September 16, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – William Entenmann Memorial Hurdle S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | French Light (FR) | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baltimore Bucko (GB) | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bassmatchi (FR) | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ritzy A. P. | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Booby Trap | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Tapatino (FR) | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | A Silent Player (IRE) | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Lonesome Glory H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | The Mean Queen (IRE) | 1.40 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Snap Decision | 1.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amschel (GB) | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Redicean (GB) | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brianbakescookies | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bodes Well (IRE) | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Galway Kid (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Coach Bahe | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Orb in the Tower | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Breaking Stones | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Good Culture | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Papa Jimmy | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Scotty | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Crowding Out | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lilac Girl | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chalet Beach (IRE) | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Intense Honor | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Split Then Double (GB) | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | O’Gotten Girl | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Talk | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Arch of Fire | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gabriela’s Miracle | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amazing Dream | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Prima Della | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Saratoga Kisses | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Afilada | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amore Fire | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Conservatve Values | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | London Pearl | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Messidor (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Misspell | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Designer Ready | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Petrol (GB) | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sport Model | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Evvie Jets | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Adelaide Miss | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take It Off | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Contained | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Flat Out Beautiful | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Alcools | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fox Red | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mojovation | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Free Enterprise | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clench | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 7 | Happy Farm | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Just Right | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 7 | Perjury Trap | 0.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kinenos | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Temple | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Value Engineering | 0.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Farmington Road | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Summer to Remember | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gunnison | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Zoomer | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Black Licorice | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Exfiltration | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spun for Lu Lu | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Constitutionalrage | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bella Principessa | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mondeuse | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lemon Taffy | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Killoean Rose | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mill Stone Creek | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Duckphat | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Elegant Laoban | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Angeloverthepulpit | 50.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Grace in Motion | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Barrel of Bliss | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.