Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 16, 2021

September 16, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


Try SFTB Plus for Free

$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.

Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!

Learn More

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bossy Snow Pea 1.80 1.1 2-1
5 5 Cave Creek 2.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 La Guerrerita 5.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Touch by Felicty 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Lexi Summer 10.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Southern Attack 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Cookin Roses 6.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Royal Mission 2.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Dancin At Midnight 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 U Can Do It 3.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Nurse Sadie 12.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Tizaladybug 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 She’s Wandaful 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 My Boss Lady 4.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Governors Wraith 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Maid of Honor 1.60 3.5 7-1
6 6 Sharp Hero 4.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Fox Able Charlie 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Joan’s Way 3.50 4.8 9-1
4 4 English 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Colorofacloud 8.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Neve de Lua 4.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Ruler Daenerys 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Tika Toy 20.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Valerie Valeski 2.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Lady X Factor 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Starlet Warrior 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Aka Lioness 1.40 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Andreas 4.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Ioya Again 1.80 2.3 4-1
6 6 Iwillpersevere 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Paddy’s House 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Empty Holster 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Admiral Returns 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Coming Up Aces 8.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Imagine Gold 8.00 2 4-1
7 7 Locash 15.00 3.4 7-1
9 9 Weekend Pass 10.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Couger 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Supreme Irene 2.00 5 9-1
6 6 Bird Key 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Alotmoreaction 4.00 6.6 13-1
8 8 Twelve Red Roses 3.50 7 13-1
3 3 Girls Count 8.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bourre’ Trick 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 Call of Honor 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Rave On 10.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Biggie 12.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Muchomatic 15.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Dynablue 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Storm’s Reflection 20.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Dastardly Deeds 6.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Rocket Hotshot 15.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Mulsanne (IRE) 3.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Power Through 20.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Midnight Blue Note 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Kennesaw 2.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Major Wager 6.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Ol Grey Ghost 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Star of Kodiak 4.50 5.5 10-1
5 5 Here Comes Kyle 10.00 6 11-1
10 10 Royal Commish 15.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Omar Attack 10.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Baseball Politics 20.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Navy Seal 15.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

Upcoming Bankroll Contests
Go To Lobby
SFTB Plus

$10 a Month Gets You DFS Optimizers, Horse Racing Advanced Stats, and More.

Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!

Learn More
SFTB Parties

Choose Your Events and Create Your Own Sportsbook for You and Your Friends.

Only $3 to set up, and includes unlimited guests.

Learn More