September 12, 2021 Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mashhad Flats | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Commissioner David | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Even Steven | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mesa Empire | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | After the Candy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Misawa | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gordy’s Boy | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rich Warrior | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Straus’s Place | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Silver Kid | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Catfish Charlie | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Girona | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Showmethemagic | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Darling Demon | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stradari | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Flyer | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sea Glass | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gates of Heaven | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nichiren | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stir the Pot | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Beat | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Afternoon Heat | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Simmer Down | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gayles Evening | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frisco Frills | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Malibu Mistress | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Later Days | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Thirsty Chapo | 1.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I Know Cash Flow | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Curling Secret | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tee Shot | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Swede | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gemini Bay | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Real Pouch | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Paulas Cause | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Street Behavior | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Question Authority | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Whatsittoya | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Typhoon Harry | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Upper Room | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Palace Prince | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – E.b. Johnston S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Galilean | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Desmond Doss | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Loud Mouth | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Fish | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Peaceful Transfer | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tom’s Surprise | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Whisky My God (ARG) | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Equipo A | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dapper | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Clutch | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pedro Perez | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Calder Vale | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Deputy Gary | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | W. Whitehouse | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.