September 10, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ballybrack Lass | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Watchin the Wheels | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Little Chick | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | G City Warrior | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Darlin Rosie | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Lily | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Galahad Kid | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bubba Caballo | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Giant’s Forrest | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yalikeanything | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dancin Nicky | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Antalya | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Brexit | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sense of Self | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | April’s Gem | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Good Mongolia | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kingsbury Dream | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Texas Rain | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Northern Alliance | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Manhattan Legacy | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jolina | 1.40 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lion Love | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lily’s Woofy | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rank and File | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rare Action Attack | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Avasarala | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Andthethunderrolls | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gagoots | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cockalorum | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Retain | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Half Cocked | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | On the Muscle | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Powerful Man | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Livinherbestlife | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Niff | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pinkaboo | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Summer Belle | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Charging Nellie | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Freedom Rose | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lifenhowulivit | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Aulenti | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Zazzy Zazzy Dazzle | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Frontier Charlie | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dewy’s Hit | 1.60 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smiling Silas | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Overpraise | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Venetian Dream | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | White Mist | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Upham | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Joey B | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cloud to Ground | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fast One | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Roar of the Lion | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Benelux | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Markitoff | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Merlin’s Song | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fly Nightly | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cammack | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wile E Peyote | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Going With Style | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Iwillpersevere | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Readthecliffnotes | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.