Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 10, 2021

September 10, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ballybrack Lass 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Watchin the Wheels 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Little Chick 12.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 G City Warrior 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Darlin Rosie 4.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Golden Lily 3.50 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dark Wood (IRE) 4.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Galahad Kid 1.40 2.5 5-1
6 6 Bubba Caballo 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Giant’s Forrest 6.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Yalikeanything 2.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Dancin Nicky 20.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Antalya 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Lady Brexit 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Sense of Self 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 April’s Gem 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Good Mongolia 4.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Kingsbury Dream 6.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Texas Rain 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Northern Alliance 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Manhattan Legacy 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 2 Jolina 1.40 2.9 6-1
6 5 Lion Love 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Lily’s Woofy 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 3 Rank and File 4.50 3.8 7-1
5 4 Rare Action Attack 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Avasarala 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Andthethunderrolls 3.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Gagoots 1.60 3.3 6-1
1 1 Cockalorum 3.50 3.4 7-1
4 4 Retain 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Half Cocked 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 On the Muscle 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Powerful Man 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Livinherbestlife 3.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 Niff 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Pinkaboo 10.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Summer Belle 5.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Charging Nellie 8.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Freedom Rose 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Lifenhowulivit 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Aulenti 6.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Zazzy Zazzy Dazzle 15.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Frontier Charlie 30.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Dewy’s Hit 1.60 5.8 11-1
8 8 Smiling Silas 12.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Overpraise 8.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Venetian Dream 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 White Mist 6.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Upham 8.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Joey B 6.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Cloud to Ground 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Fast One 10.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Roar of the Lion 12.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Benelux 4.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Markitoff 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Merlin’s Song 10.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Blue Sky Kowboy 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Fly Nightly 3.50 3.8 7-1
9 8 Cammack 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Wile E Peyote 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Going With Style 15.00 9.2 17-1
8 8 Iwillpersevere 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Readthecliffnotes 4.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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