September 6, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Equal Pay | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big City Momma | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Someday Maybe | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’m Perfect Too | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mun Luv | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Venus Oyzo | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Superbloodwolfmoon | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Belarus | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Adversity | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Carbon | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Call Sign Charlie | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Caragate | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chiara | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | The Honorable Ruth | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sedona Rocks | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Kisses for Emily | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Bernard Baruch H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | L’Imperator (FR) | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tell Your Daddy | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dreams of Tomorrow | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Word | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | En Wye Cee | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Roxy Girl | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frills | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Mia | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No Deal | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady by Choice | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Extra Effort | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Subsidiary | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Realm of Law | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Abaan | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | American Law | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Conglomerate | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aruba | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tackle | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Canyouhearmenow | 50.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sign of the Dove | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | A Thing of Beauty | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Perhaps Tonight (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ocean Air | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Pinky | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kiss and Run | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Linny Kate | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Social Exclusion | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Franny Lu | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Entwine (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Seahorse d’Oro | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Back Channel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Della Lute | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hollywood Gina | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Amity Island | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Stretchthestory | 50.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Commandperformance | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Don’t Wait Up | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drakon | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Forced Ranking | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pine Valley | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Matt Doyle | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Torpedo Run | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gruden | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Road to Stardom | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Irie Spice | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cloud Play | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Consumer Spending | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silvery Rill | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hedy Lamarr | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dancin Dee | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dance for Gold | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Toeris | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Popular Vote | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kazachan | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Old School (GB) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hot Fudge | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Awesome Debate | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Betsy Blue | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ifihadachance | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Honey Money | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Miss Jimmy | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | A Life That’s Good | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Party At Page’s | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rossa Veloce | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ruvies in Time | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Beautiful Karen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Hopeful S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wit | 1.40 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | High Oak | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Defend | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gunite | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Power Agenda | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Headline Report | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kevin’s Folly | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Volcanic | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Big Scully | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kitodan | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Street Fight | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | King Cause | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghost Giant | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Klickitat | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cold Hard Cash | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | La Hara (IRE) | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Performing Arts | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Atone | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Alley Oop Johnny | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Unitedandresolute | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Johnny Sack | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mister Winston | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Treason | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Advance Notice | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Crea’s Bklyn Law | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Air Show | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Fidget | 50.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Norman Queen | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | New York Supreme | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Black Panda | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Orma | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stella Mars | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Inouaintalkintome | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Path Less Taken | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Happy Hill Lil | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Speightska | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Barrel of Bliss | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Idaka | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ob La Di | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Captivating Cara | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mill Stone Creek | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Idalisa | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Reeley Psyched | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.