September 4, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | War Smoke | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Suit of Armor | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sheriff Bianco | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brian’s Mission | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Citizen K | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | El Diablo | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | B C Glory Days | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Distractandattack | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fuoco | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Giramonte | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Scherzando | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Forty Comets | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Stonecoldwarrior | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Heroneandonly | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | On the Dean’s List | 50.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ashaar | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Roaming Union | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Supreme Aura | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grumps Little Tots | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Legit | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Acker | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heavy Roller | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Universal Payday | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Baby I’m Perfect | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cody’s Wish | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pipeline | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | North Carolina | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ubiquitous | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Waxman | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sticky Issue | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Baltasar | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Risky Mischief | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Domina | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Harper’s in Charge | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Meet the Beauty | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fetching | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lilly Simone | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fort Drum | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Screamin’ By | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Rivendell | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Prioress S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Souper Sensational | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oxana | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Edie Meeny Miny Mo | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cilla | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Li’l Tootsie | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amendment Nineteen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Annapolis | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nyquest Nix | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ohtwoohthreefive | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Beloved Warrior | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Calloway Peak | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curbstone | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’ll Figure It Out | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Irish Sea | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Sense | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Immokalee | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | So Determined | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Faith Runner | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Misbehaved | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ten Gauge | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Galt | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Brigadier General | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Classic Causeway | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Olympian | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trafalgar | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tiz Eternal | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jurkovec | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Atlantic Dancer | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cloud Play | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Saranac S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Public Sector (GB) | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Founder | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Never Surprised | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Like the King | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mohs | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | He’spuregold | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Risk Taking | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | English Breeze | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Cara’s Dreamer | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Just Ok Is Not Ok | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Electric Youth | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Freedom Machine | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lookin to Fly | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Golden Oldie | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Infringement | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beyond Brown | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tax Me Naught | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Caramocha | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Ducale | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Baby Yoda | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hometown | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Marching | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Crowded Trade | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Olympiad | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tuggle | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Stayin’ Out Late | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rejected Again | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wow Brown | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hoopla | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Ampersand | 50.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Flower Bowl S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | La Signare (FR) | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | War Like Goddess | 0.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Sister Nat (FR) | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Great Island | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Bridge (GB) | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lovely Lucky | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Coastana | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Jockey Club Gold Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Max Player | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Night Ops | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Forza Di Oro | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Happy Saver | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chess Chief | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Forewarned | 50.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.