September 4, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Dive Deep | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Will Knows | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Finnegan (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Souper Highvoltage | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dark Ninja | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nyoman | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Upbeat Melody | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Outrider | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ol Grey Ghost | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rip It Ryan | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Coco Bravado | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tom’s Last General | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On the Muscle | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | She’s Hot Today | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Seven Seventeen | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hoosier Gold Case | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hero Alexandra | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Varsity Flygirl | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maystart | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Close to Me | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Stormin El Prado | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Major Wager | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Biarritz | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Green Mo’ster | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tuff Attack | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Red Hot Devil | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smokin Richie | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kennesaw | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Huey Attack | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seven Scents | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chinobe | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nuclear Option | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | High Crime | 3.50 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ambassador Luna | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wild Wes | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hannity | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bullion | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Edison Fire | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Croce d’Oro | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Can’t Hide From Me | 1.40 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Contraction | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Splash for Gold | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tap the Mojo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Son of Grace | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Quality Hour | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quiet Prayer | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kit Kowaleski | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cold Birdie | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Firmament | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Artie and Jessie | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | No Nay Now (IRE) | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Off to the Beach | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | One Flashy Girl | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stack Shack | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Special Conquest | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bow Down Tewmey | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unburnt | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Emily Bug | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oxbow’s Ruby | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nofansinthestands | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.