Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 4, 2021

September 4, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Dive Deep 2.50 2.3 4-1
3 2 Will Knows 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Finnegan (IRE) 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Souper Highvoltage 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Dark Ninja 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Nyoman 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Upbeat Melody 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 1 Outrider 3.50 1.4 3-1
3 2 Ol Grey Ghost 3.00 3.9 7-1
7 6 Rip It Ryan 4.50 5.3 10-1
4 3 Coco Bravado 6.00 5.4 10-1
6 5 Tom’s Last General 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 On the Muscle 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 She’s Hot Today 3.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Seven Seventeen 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Hoosier Gold Case 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Hero Alexandra 2.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Varsity Flygirl 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Maystart 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 Close to Me 6.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stormin El Prado 15.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Major Wager 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Biarritz 4.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 The Green Mo’ster 6.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Tuff Attack 10.00 4 7-1
7 7 Red Hot Devil 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Smokin Richie 3.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Kennesaw 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Huey Attack 6.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Seven Scents 6.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Never Have I Ever (IRE) 3.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Chinobe 3.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Nuclear Option 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 High Crime 3.50 5 10-1
8 8 Ambassador Luna 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Wild Wes 12.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hannity 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Bullion 4.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Edison Fire 15.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Croce d’Oro 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Can’t Hide From Me 1.40 4.6 9-1
5 5 Contraction 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Splash for Gold 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tap the Mojo 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Son of Grace 2.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Quality Hour 10.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Quiet Prayer 4.00 3 6-1
9 9 Kit Kowaleski 12.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Cold Birdie 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Firmament 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Artie and Jessie 30.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 No Nay Now (IRE) 2.50 5.7 11-1
8 8 Off to the Beach 6.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 One Flashy Girl 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Stack Shack 2.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Special Conquest 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Bow Down Tewmey 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Unburnt 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Emily Bug 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Oxbow’s Ruby 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Nofansinthestands 3.00 6.2 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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