Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 3, 2021

September 3, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Coastal Chaos 2.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Mo Rewards 3.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Wild Appeal 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Bet 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Dorsoduro 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Magical Knight 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Lanzoni 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bubble Rock 1.60 1.6 3-1
2 2 Nay Say (IRE) 3.50 2.4 4-1
6 6 Old Pho 4.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Vaccine of Hope 5.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 She’s Stormy 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Determined Charm 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Sebago Lake 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Sirius Princess 20.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 Magic Circle 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Speedometer 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Risk Profile 1.60 2 4-1
5 4 Repo Rocks 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 5 Cousin Andrew 4.50 3.4 7-1
7 6 Good Culture 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Rift Valley 8.00 4.5 8-1
4 3 No Que No 10.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Irish Giant 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Grape Nuts Warrior 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 2 Austrian 2.50 2.6 5-1
9 7 Mr. Kringle 5.00 3.1 6-1
11 9 Catch That Party 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 4 Voliero 12.00 3.7 7-1
5 3 Ruse 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 6 Panster 3.50 4.4 8-1
2 1 Noble Conquest 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Agent Creed 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Gator Bite 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Albie 6.00 SCRATCH
10 8 Count Frost 50.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dee Bo 2.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Triple Americano 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Matty’s Marauder 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Posse Can Disco 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Noctilucent 6.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Litterbox 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Apex Predator 30.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Papa Smooth 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Doc Doc Rock 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 1 Howdyoumakeurmoney 3.50 2.4 5-1
9 8 Fontanafredda 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 9 Dancing Bella 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Can’t Catch Kacy 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 7 Try It Again 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Pave My Way 10.00 6.6 12-1
4 3 Classic Miss 15.00 9.8 19-1
6 5 Warsalm 15.00 9.9 19-1
1A 16 Call Sign Charlie 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Carbon 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 N Y Fancy 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Our Tiny Dancer 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Rooski 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Summer Snow 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Uni Loves a Fight 20.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Principled Stand (GB) 4.50 2.3 4-1
8 6 Emaraaty (GB) 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Chocolate Bar 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 3 Voodoo Zip 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 2 Winning Factor 6.00 4.3 8-1
9 7 Parlor 10.00 5.9 11-1
7 5 Entertainment 20.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Liveyourbeastlife 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Hieroglyphics 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Farmington Road 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Fort Peck 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gold Panda 2.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Big Bobby 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Prince of Pharoahs 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Work Out 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Luna’s in Charge 10.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Purple Hearted 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Great Workout 8.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Tiz Kaz Now 30.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Masked Marauder 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lucky Coin S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Holiday Stone 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 Noble Emotion 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 4 Maxwell Esquire 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 3 Pulsate 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Backtohisroots 4.50 2.8 5-1
8 7 Maven 2.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Guildsman (FR) 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 The Connector 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Lady Valentine 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Gauff (IRE) 4.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Sitting Pretty 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 7 Pruning 4.50 3.6 7-1
9 8 Federalist Papers 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Fleeting Glimpse 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Gailhorsewind 10.00 5 10-1
10 9 Peacebethejourney 20.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Mayhap 20.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Salit 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Except Temptation 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Big City Momma 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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