September 3, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Coastal Chaos | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Rewards | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Appeal | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bet | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dorsoduro | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Magical Knight | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lanzoni | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bubble Rock | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nay Say (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Old Pho | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Vaccine of Hope | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | She’s Stormy | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Determined Charm | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sebago Lake | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sirius Princess | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Magic Circle | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Speedometer | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Risk Profile | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Repo Rocks | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cousin Andrew | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Good Culture | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rift Valley | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | No Que No | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Giant | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Grape Nuts Warrior | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Austrian | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mr. Kringle | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Catch That Party | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Voliero | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Ruse | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Panster | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Noble Conquest | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Agent Creed | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Gator Bite | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Albie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Count Frost | 50.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dee Bo | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Triple Americano | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Matty’s Marauder | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Posse Can Disco | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Noctilucent | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Litterbox | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Apex Predator | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Papa Smooth | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Doc Doc Rock | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Howdyoumakeurmoney | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fontanafredda | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | Dancing Bella | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Can’t Catch Kacy | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Try It Again | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pave My Way | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Classic Miss | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Warsalm | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Call Sign Charlie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Carbon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | N Y Fancy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Our Tiny Dancer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Rooski | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Summer Snow | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Uni Loves a Fight | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Principled Stand (GB) | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Emaraaty (GB) | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chocolate Bar | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Voodoo Zip | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Winning Factor | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Parlor | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Entertainment | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Liveyourbeastlife | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hieroglyphics | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Farmington Road | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Fort Peck | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gold Panda | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Bobby | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prince of Pharoahs | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Work Out | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Luna’s in Charge | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Purple Hearted | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Great Workout | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tiz Kaz Now | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Masked Marauder | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lucky Coin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Holiday Stone | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Noble Emotion | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maxwell Esquire | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pulsate | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Backtohisroots | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Maven | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Guildsman (FR) | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Connector | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lady Valentine | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gauff (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sitting Pretty | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pruning | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Federalist Papers | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fleeting Glimpse | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gailhorsewind | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Peacebethejourney | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mayhap | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Salit | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Except Temptation | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Big City Momma | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.