August 29, 2021 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mongolian Window | 2.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Paige Runner | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Kitness | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A J Rock | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | It’s a Riddle | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Coal Shaft | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kitten’s Kid | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Piazzetta | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | So Very Smart | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Delta Wind | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nan Elizabeth | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shanghai Dazzler | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beautiful World | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Count of Amazonia (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ready Soul | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Galilean | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Red Storm Risen | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wound Tight | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sash (GB) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Musawaat (GB) | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Workin Ninetofive | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maggie Fitzgerald | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lilly Babe | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Surely Spectacular | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quick Take | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Smart Monique | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thisonesforbarry | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sue Ettas Ghost | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Big Mamacita | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Never Sway | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Allwinedup | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lord M | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cant Stop This Man | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Try to Capture | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Circle Back | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cognac Cat | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rocketcent | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Warfront Fighter | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Careless Kitten | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Diamond Ranger | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fun Coupons | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Silver Kid | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mad Catter | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Thanks Maggio (ARG) | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flactem Legacy | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Jamming Eddy | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grit and Curiosity | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mesut | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Vargas | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Perfectionistic | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | McWherter | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | First Prez | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rager | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Explosive | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Melting Snow | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Sweep | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Vita | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Queengol | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz a Master | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Livingmybestlife | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stella Noir | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Focus First | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Last First Kiss | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lena’s Big Day | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Keep Dancing | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bella D | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Clare | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Stretch | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warrens Candy Girl | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rose’s Crystal | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | She’s a Dime | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Warrior’s Moon | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Gotta Be Lucky | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Big Mama Sue | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Super Game | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Nice Ice | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sunshine Babe | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Shared Belief S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Medina Spirit | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Team Merchants | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Great One | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rock Your World | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stilleto Boy | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Willy the Cobbler | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Wearenotbadpeople | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sottocapo | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aligato | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Torrid Tommy | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crash Corrigan | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mount Olympic | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Summer | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Back in Action | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Surplus | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zero Down | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Va Va Voom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Spanish Channel | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.