Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 28, 2021

August 28, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Sweeping Giant 2.00 1.9 3-1
1 4 Royal Spirit 3.00 2.1 4-1
3 1 Electability 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 5 Doctor Davis 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 6 Speaking Scout 8.00 4.5 8-1
4 2 Spin Wheel 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 3 Martini’nmoonshine 15.00 7.2 14-1
9 7 Daunt 20.00 9.7 18-1
2 1 Chileno 5.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Gruden 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Pioneer of Medina 2.50 SCRATCH
1A 12 So Determined 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Jack Christopher 1.80 1.6 3-1
3 3 Be Better 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Dr. Perry 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Back to Normal 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Hoist the Gold 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Steinbeck 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Illustrious 10.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Golden Plume 2.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Love And Thunder (IRE) 1.40 2.7 5-1
6 5 Secret Time (GER) 4.50 4 8-1
2 1 Vividly (GB) 8.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Kitten by the Sea 8.00 6.3 12-1
1A 6 Sparkling Sky 10.00 7.1 14-1
4 3 Windfall Profit 12.00 7.6 14-1
1 4 Princess Fawzia 10.00 8.1 15-1
5 4 Trinni Luck 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Ballston Spa S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Kalifornia Queen (GER) 2.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Viadera (GB) 1.60 2.5 5-1
2 2 Tamahere (FR) 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 New York Girl (IRE) 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 High Opinion 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Platinum Paynter 10.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Whittington Park 2.00 1.5 3-1
6 5 Brady’s Legacy 3.00 1.6 3-1
8 7 Wicked Bobby 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Koosman 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Miracle Nicky 8.00 3.7 7-1
9 8 Bointheback 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 Eridromos 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Something Majestic 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Raw Courage 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 8 Big Package 2.50 2.6 5-1
9 6 Shiraz 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 3 Charmed (GB) 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 After Five 5.00 3.7 7-1
10 7 Christopher 8.00 4 8-1
8 5 Mamba On Three 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 4 Colton’s Command 5.00 5 10-1
3 2 Gins and Tins 15.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Ampersand 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Baby Yoda 1.40 SCRATCH
5 5 Stage Left 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Lomu 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Ketel One Ballerina H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sconsin 4.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Ce Ce 4.00 2 4-1
1 1 Gamine 0.60 2.8 5-1
6 6 Estilo Talentoso 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Lake Avenue 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Casual 15.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Truth Hurts 50.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Forego S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lexitonian 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Mind Control 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Whitmore 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Yaupon 2.50 2.9 5-1
8 8 Firenze Fire 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Mischevious Alex 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Doubly Blessed 15.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Chance It 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – H. Allen Jerkens Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Jackie’s Warrior 1.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Drain the Clock 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Life Is Good 1.60 2.6 5-1
4 4 Following Sea 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Judge N Jury 15.00 4 7-1
3 3 Newbomb 30.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Personal Ensign S. Presented By Lia Infiniti

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Letruska 1.20 2.6 5-1
4 4 Swiss Skydiver 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 As Time Goes By 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Bonny South 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Harvey’s Lil Goil 8.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Royal Flag 10.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Graceful Princess 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Miss Marissa 20.00 7 13-1
1 1 Dunbar Road 20.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tribhuvan (FR) 2.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Japan (GB) 4.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Cross Border 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Gufo 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Rockemperor (IRE) 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Channel Maker 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Moretti 15.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Runhappy Travers S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Essential Quality 0.80 2.7 5-1
1 1 Midnight Bourbon 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Keepmeinmind 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Dynamic One 6.00 3.4 7-1
6 6 Masqueparade 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Miles D 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 King Fury 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dancing Firefly 1.80 1.9 4-1
12 11 Sister Luck 3.00 2 4-1
10 9 Home for Christmas 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Tessler 10.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Tales of Makenna 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Constitutionalrage 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Spanish Dreamer 15.00 4.5 8-1
13 12 Love’s Misery 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Spun for Lu Lu 20.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Grace in Motion 20.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Elegant Laoban 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bella Principessa 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Killoean Rose 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Reeley Psyched 8.00 SCRATCH
11 10 She’s On Point 50.00 12.1 23-1
3 3 Decreed 50.00 12.2 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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