August 27, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mary of Bethany | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | U Can Do It | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stopshoppingamy | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Field Letters | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gramercy | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Atlantic | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dawn’s Dancer | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Eleventh Hour | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dick the Bruiser | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Z U At the Races | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Charming | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Talis Park Grad | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gemo Rain | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Branco Maria | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Deep Dish | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fudge Brownie | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grapevine | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | I Love to Race | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Avasarala | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cave Creek | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sugar and Sass | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tiz a Queen | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ozette | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | My My Munny | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hostile Princess | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fine Cotton | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sharp Hero | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maid of Honor | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Joan’s Way | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Diva | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Colorofacloud | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Governors Wraith | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Gagoots | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Ben | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cachaco | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Draw the Line | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Semi Charmed Day | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Yalikeanything | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Half Cocked | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Two Cookie Rule | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Packed House | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dollar Blue | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tornado Boy | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Danville | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Battle Creek | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Policy Option | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Edison Fire | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Galahad Kid | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Upham | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smiling Silas | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dewy’s Hit | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Overpraise | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Giant’s Forrest | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dang It Cassie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | War Chest | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Barleewon | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Capt. Maestri | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Red Flag Alert | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | One Way Home | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Temper Tantrum | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | First Masamune | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mkar the Fast | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oncoming Train | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.