August 26, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Let Her Inspire U | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Twist Just Right | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Regal Rebel | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moam | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Pab | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jannie Mae | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Clear Vision | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Outrageous Bet | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Smile Bryan | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spirit Animal | 1.80 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Counter Offer | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon in May | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bird’s Eye View | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Boru | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mandate | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Castagno | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Thought | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kid Chocolate | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Legit | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Roaming Union | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | First Line | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Orchestration | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cambi Lion | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Win Worthy | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | High Deff (FR) | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Royne | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gold Bear | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jimmy Dan | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Prayer Book | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Reunion Tour | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Quality Stones | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cathy Naz | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frills | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Liana | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jessica | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mebs Web | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Love Me Tomorrow | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Rattle N Roll | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dumi Knife | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Imminent Storm | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Keepcalmcarryon | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Luni Sima | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dowagiac Chief | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Commander Compton | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Unbridled Bomber | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Halo of Fire | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Shared Future | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Club | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jazz Time Girl | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Top Gun Girl | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lady Scarlet | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mischievous Kiss | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Babyitsgoldoutside | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Super Sting | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Martini Twist | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Our Souper Love | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | The Elle Train (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mommasgottarun | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Run for the Hills | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Current | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Life On Top | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Reckless Spirit | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | High Tide | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Montauk Summer | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Order for Porky | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr. Vincent | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Moliere | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Unleveraged | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | No Salt | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dante’s Fire | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Glory Road | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ashaar | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Wartime Hero | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Obsessed | 50.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Whispering Pines | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Union Maiden | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Movie Moxy | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sharp Starr | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thoughtfully | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Emilia’s Moon | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Easy to Bless | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Riskaverse S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Love and Money | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Keeper of Time (IRE) | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Amy C (GB) | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rastafara (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Third Draft | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hit the Woah | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magisterium (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Designer Ready | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stand by You | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Triple Digit | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Minaun (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Discretionary Marq | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fast Getaway | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Mystery Messenger | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Xy Speed | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Three Outlaws | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bourbon Mission | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | The Queens Jules | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Encrypted (GB) | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | War Stroll | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | South Sea | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Oldies But Goodies | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Happy Farm | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Lookin for Loki | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.