August 21, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ned Christie | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Musical Theatre | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tea After Ballet | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rocket Ride | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mi Enlace | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lord Bolston | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pistol Box | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Spirits | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Finnegan (IRE) | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tap the Mojo | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Change Direction | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Cookie Rule | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Get Hammered | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Aggressivity | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Exprompt (FR) | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wild Wes | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chinobe | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Hide the Demon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Covenant Lady | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Music City Star | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Docs Seven | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Silver Cloud | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Union Park Gal (IRE) | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Band Luzziann | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Princess Stella (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Someone Said So | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | J Z’s Last Try | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Gray Blur | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pitaman | 2.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spinster Road | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Demand Ransom | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Hideaway | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Givin Up None | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Seven Seventeen | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Be Authentic | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Temrik | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hoosier Gold Case | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Catnip Kitten | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lillet | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Don’t Hold Queens | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Her Gold Mine | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Close to Me | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hoodwink | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Antecedence | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bow Down Tewmey | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Special Conquest | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Speak English | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arbitrary | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stack Shack | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rave On | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Better Think Twice | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourre’ Trick | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | K Rules | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Admiral Returns | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Duckdevil | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Dynablue | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Captain Fantastic | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rocket Hotshot | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lend It Tewmey | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.