Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 21, 2021

August 21, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ned Christie 3.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Musical Theatre 1.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Tea After Ballet 12.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Rocket Ride 8.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Mi Enlace 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Lord Bolston 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pistol Box 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 High Spirits 2.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Finnegan (IRE) 1.80 3.5 7-1
5 4 Tap the Mojo 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Change Direction 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Two Cookie Rule 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Get Hammered 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 3 Aggressivity 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Exprompt (FR) 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Wild Wes 3.50 5.1 10-1
3 3 Chinobe 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Hide the Demon 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Covenant Lady 8.00 3 6-1
6 4 Music City Star 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 2 Docs Seven 3.00 4.5 8-1
7 5 Silver Cloud 4.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Union Park Gal (IRE) 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Big Band Luzziann 1.80 SCRATCH
3 3 Princess Stella (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Someone Said So 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 J Z’s Last Try 20.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 The Gray Blur 3.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Pitaman 2.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Spinster Road 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Demand Ransom 3.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Grand Hideaway 4.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Givin Up None 15.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Seven Seventeen 2.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Be Authentic 12.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Temrik 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Hoosier Gold Case 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Catnip Kitten 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Lillet 10.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Don’t Hold Queens 10.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Her Gold Mine 10.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Close to Me 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hoodwink 10.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Antecedence 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Bow Down Tewmey 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Special Conquest 12.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Speak English 3.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Arbitrary 20.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Stack Shack 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rave On 20.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Better Think Twice 15.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Bourre’ Trick 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 K Rules 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Admiral Returns 2.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Duckdevil 10.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Dynablue 6.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Captain Fantastic 4.50 5.4 10-1
5 5 Rocket Hotshot 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Lend It Tewmey 8.00 8.7 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
3rd - 13:26
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Final
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Final
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4th - 8:45
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4th - 5:05
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4th - 7:31
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3rd - 6:19
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3rd - 7:28
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2nd - 2:20
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