August 20, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Constancia | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | First Squadron | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drama Run | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nothins Free | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bobbie too Too | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hoppestry | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | American Chaos | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dare Goes Da Devil | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Adios Asher | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Star On the Map | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Omaha Red | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dream Island | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Winter’s Ghost | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | The Last Fact | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Little Toot | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Navy Pier | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kingsburry Attack | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Artie and Jessie | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cold Birdie | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Inside the Circle | 1.80 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Irish Halo | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Winning Quality | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Estardo | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Me too Mo | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Frost | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blues Mary | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hey Hey | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Susan Ann | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Son of Grace | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Julio Tutwiler | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Andthethunderrolls | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kit Kowaleski | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fifty One Ninety | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Irish Tuff | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Off to the Beach | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Dreamful | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Serene | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ollie’s Gold | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Katie M’lady | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sunny One | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Varsity Flygirl | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Gastown | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | She’s Wandaful | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Tale of the Nile | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shanghai Point | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mias Moonbeam | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Grand Hideaway | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Splash for Gold | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tre Lee Divine | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diddley | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dive Deep | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Jettin Out | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Desoto’s War | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Skip the Smalltalk | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | On the Muscle | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yalikeanything | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stormin El Prado | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moon Flash | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Last Spring | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Macho Classic | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mister Kelly | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Clear to Close | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.