August 19, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | True Castle | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Anna’s Fast | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Violent Point | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She’s a Black Belt | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Mia | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Big Scully | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pipito | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | St. Lukes | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sailor Speed | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Street Hustle | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Inevtabl Conection | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Osbourne | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Rosey’s Peach | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tenderness | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Jen’s Battle | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Jasminesque | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Sky Kitten | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Corey Scores | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Amber | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Quasar | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Smooth Pebble | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | More Moonshine | 1.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Misty Veil | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ice Princess | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maoilin | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Family Time | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Silver Strand | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shalimar Gardens | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | O’Gotten Girl | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sarah Harper | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mun Luv | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boss Cara | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thegoddessofsnakes | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gold Panda | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fenway | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | V Pattern | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seizer | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Got the Gold | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Forty Comets | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oliver’s Fortune | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | On the Dean’s List | 50.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Claytnthelionheart | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Backsideofthemoon | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Thomas Shelby | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Dynadrive | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Fortuity | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pretty Good Year | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Olympico (FR) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shamrocket | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Opry | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Kinenos | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Gunnison | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lightning Lou (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Suspended Campaign | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Battle Bling | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Kerik | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Vegas Weekend | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gambling Cat | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Coworth Park | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Kitten With a Whip | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Triple Digit | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Joqular | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Caramocha | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Union Avenue H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sadie Lady | 0.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Irish Constitution | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Diva Banker | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Awesome Debate | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hannah Dances | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lot of Honey | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Marvelous Maude | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Pop the Bubbly | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Raining Candy | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Miss Flintshire | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Vivazano | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hiya Harry | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Acushla | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hit the Nail | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | La Victoria | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tingling Mint | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Saluki | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tapple Cider | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Cali Fitz | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mill Stone Creek | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.