Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, August 18, 2021

August 18, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Jonathan Sheppard H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 The Mean Queen (IRE) 2.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Baltimore Bucko (GB) 2.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Redicean (GB) 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Gibralfaro (IRE) 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 French Light (FR) 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 City Dreamer (IRE) 15.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Recent Revelations (IRE) 15.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 A Silent Player (IRE) 20.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cantrell Hill 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 5 Free Enterprise 2.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Easy Shot 4.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Flat Out Beautiful 4.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Create Again 6.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Somebody 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Morning Matcha 2.00 1.3 3-1
9 8 Monshun 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Sea Pines 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 G Money Liv 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Lockstep 12.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Fiftyshadesofrun 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 7 Love Unlimited 20.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Pout 20.00 7 13-1
7 7 Call Sign Charlie 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Blewitt 2.00 2 4-1
4 4 Villainous 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Universal Payday 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Kumar 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Dark Storm 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Heavy Roller 8.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 3 Lemieux 1.20 1.1 2-1
1 1 Shine 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 2 Princess Teruko 15.00 6.9 13-1
2A 2 Decree of Love 5.00 SCRATCH
3A 3 Ready for Charm 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Diamond Hands 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Gun Boat 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Highly Devauxted 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Vagaries (IRE) 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Crowding Out 1.60 1.4 3-1
1 1 Sand and Sea 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 6 Miss Domina 4.00 2.1 4-1
9 7 Thegoddessofsnakes 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Let Them Eat Cake 8.00 4 7-1
3 3 Arch of Fire 30.00 7 13-1
2 2 Venus Oyzo 30.00 7.1 14-1
5 5 Genetic Gem 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gailhorsewind 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Targeted Return 4.50 1.5 3-1
7 6 Before You 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Cadeau de Paix 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Air Cavalry 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Bayshore Foxes 3.00 3 6-1
2 2 Raffinity 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 April Antics 20.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Chloe Rose 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Musical America 2.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Taos 4.50 2.7 5-1
6 4 Parlor 3.00 3.2 6-1
7 5 Attentive 6.00 3.6 7-1
11 6 Troubling Moon 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Artemus Bridge 15.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Castagno 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Seismic Wave 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Morocco 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Soulmate 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Hieroglyphics 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bolton Landing S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Poppy Flower 2.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Fulminate 3.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Derrynane 5.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Flip My Id 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Kneesnhips 10.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Chi Town Lady 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Charlee O 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Stand Up Comic 12.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Cartel Queen 12.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Landslid 50.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Averly Jane 1.80 SCRATCH
12 12 Golden Bell 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Clear Humor 1.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Multiple Expansion 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Stonecoldwarrior 12.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 D’vinicris 10.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Damilano 3.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Capt’ Remington 15.00 3 6-1
5 5 Brother Jeremiah 30.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Production Credit 50.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 A Colt Named Susie 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.