Sports from the Basement

Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, August 15, 2021

August 15, 2021 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Invincibella (GB) 3.00 1.9 4-1
9 8 I’m the Hero 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Malibu Mistress 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Storming Lady 1.80 3.8 7-1
4 4 Busy Paynter 6.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Smiling Annie 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Miss Kitness 12.00 5 9-1
1 1 Saving Sophie 12.00 5.5 10-1
5 4 On Deck 20.00 7.1 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Sauls Call 1.80 1.8 3-1
3 2 I Know Cash Flow 4.00 2 4-1
5 4 Thirsty Chapo 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Tizlightning 12.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Orth 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Gemini Bay 12.00 3.7 7-1
9 8 Toasted At Dawn 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Blazing Candy 15.00 4.1 8-1
10 9 Smoken Shadow 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Big Swede 30.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gidgetta 2.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Angelcents 3.00 2.4 5-1
6 5 Beautiful Ballad 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Ole Silver 12.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Five Pics Please 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Fantasy Heat 3.00 3.6 7-1
8 7 Never for Money 12.00 6 11-1
9 9 Acting Out 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Ana Lisa 20.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Vaporized 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Heir (FR) 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Big Well 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Paint Me Lucky 1.60 3.3 6-1
3 3 Investment Account 4.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Whistleblower 12.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Prince Ziggy 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Mongol Altai 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Bold Voyager 12.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Hemmerle 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Helens Well (IRE) 4.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Very Scary 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Carroll Girl 6.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 A Crown for Kitten 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Liam’s Dove 8.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Charlotte Harbor 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Beachgrass 20.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Set the Tone 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Macrelletta 30.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Soul of a Warrior 30.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Traffic Stopper 4.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Pasito 6.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Flat Out Joy 2.50 5 10-1
5 4 Secret Mistress 6.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Angel’s Advocate 8.00 5.9 11-1
10 9 Listen to Blue 12.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 What Goes On Tour 8.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Coal Shaft 15.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Daring Cat 20.00 8.2 16-1
7 6 Jamminjl 30.00 8.4 16-1
12 11 Bold Mistress 15.00 8.7 16-1
11 10 Secret Maneuver 20.00 9.4 18-1
13 13 Run Like Kona 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Solana Beach S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Warm Summer 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Warren’s Showtime 1.20 2.4 4-1
1 1 Pulpit Rider 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Sedamar 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Leggs Galore 2.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Cassie Belle 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Nardini 12.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Leprino 1.80 1.5 3-1
7 7 Causeididitmyway 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Cajun Treasure 5.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Itsthattime 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Dr. Troutman 6.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Royal Insider 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Route Six Six 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Owning 20.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Nerves of Steel 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Liar Liar (IRE) 3.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Vantastic 4.00 4.4 8-1
12 12 C Falls 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Seeking Refuge 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Foothill 12.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Sea of Liberty 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 East Rand 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Fuego Caliente 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Best Chance 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Twilight Rider 30.00 9.6 18-1
10 10 Onenightstandards 0.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
4th - 12:38
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4th - 2:11
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4th - 3:31
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3rd - 3:49
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