August 12, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gimmedamoney | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Juggler | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aggregation | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Convertible Freeze | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Who Hoo Thats Me | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Daufuskie Island | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ava K’s Boy | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drosel Diem | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Knightly Mischief | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Whimsical Muse | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Atlas | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Candy Flower | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Five Alarm Robin | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flashing Red | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lagom | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Daria’s Angel | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Saratoga Dew H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Espresso Shot | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mrs. Orb | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maiden Beauty | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Simply Ravishing | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Kiki | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Spungie | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chocolate Cookie | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mischievous Dream | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Kreesie | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Light in the Sky | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cartwheel | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Silky Blue | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Key Point | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cozzy’s Attitude | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Silver Samurai | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Surprise Boss | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Happy Happy B | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pepe’s Pride | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hot Rod Rumble | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Bobby | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kenny Hustle | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bemo | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Skyward Princess | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pimenova | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Classic Lynne | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cricket West | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Adversity | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady of Thoroton | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dufresne | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Cara Mia Mine | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | I’ll Go All In | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Captainsdaughter | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Makin My Move | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Classic Vinman | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Royal Currency | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Let Her Inspire U | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Helens Spirit | 50.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rcaptivating | 50.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 2 | Hollywood Gina | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10A | 8 | Nicky Scissors | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Malibu Luna | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Traffic Lane | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Hey It’s Tati | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | On a Tour | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sweeter | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Take It Off | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thief of Hearts | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Amity Island | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | East Wing | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Gagliano | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Love Me Tomorrow | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Briefcase Bully | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mihos | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Letmeno | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shoplifted | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chocolate Bar | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mojovation | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Uncle’s Gem | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Get the Candy | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Canarsie Angel | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Snicket | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fractorzation | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Athena Dancer | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Itsakeyper | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mosienko | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jen’s Battle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lot of Honey | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Beautiful Karen | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Proper Grammar | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shesasuperfreak | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Abaan | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | No Burn | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amano | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Group Hug | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I Am the Law | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Tryst | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Incitatus | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Complicate | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Semper Fidelis | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rhythmic Ruler | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | L’Artiste | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Prayer Book | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Gold Bear | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mubtadaa | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bold Victory | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dinner Bell | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.