August 12, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Yalikeanything | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chopper | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Morethansoultitle | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Z U At the Races | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rule Follower | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Last Spring | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mary of Bethany | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Docs Seven | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Rebellion | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Audrey’s Time | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fox Frey | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shez Stuck Up | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | War Lance | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nip N Tuck | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Town Agenda | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Flag Alert | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Relmbunkus Syr | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Delft Blue | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Clemson Tiger | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Regular Guy | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | White Mist | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Clarestown | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Smokey Harbor | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Draft Capital | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Little Chick | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Erin’s Enthusiasm | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maystart | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Varsity Flygirl | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Romantic Attack | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Apollo U Anywhere | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hero Alexandra | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Galahad Kid | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pitaman | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Pachi | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Rahfee Town | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Givin Up None | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Demand Ransom | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Azrael | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Duchossois | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bullion | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dollar Blue | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Antrim’s Giant | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | First Masamune | 4.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | English Challenge | 6.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hardly a Secret | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fade Away | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Barleewon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Krewe Chief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Slick Silver | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.