Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 12, 2021

August 12, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Yalikeanything 2.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Chopper 8.00 1.7 3-1
6 4 Morethansoultitle 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 3 Z U At the Races 6.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Rule Follower 1.60 SCRATCH
4 4 Last Spring 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mary of Bethany 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Docs Seven 2.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Bourbon Rebellion 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 Audrey’s Time 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Fox Frey 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Shez Stuck Up 4.50 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 War Lance 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Nip N Tuck 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 5 Town Agenda 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Red Flag Alert 2.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Relmbunkus Syr 3.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Delft Blue 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Clemson Tiger 5.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Regular Guy 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 White Mist 15.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Clarestown 2.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Smokey Harbor 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Draft Capital 2.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Little Chick 12.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Erin’s Enthusiasm 4.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Maystart 4.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Varsity Flygirl 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Romantic Attack 1.60 SCRATCH
6 6 Apollo U Anywhere 2.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hero Alexandra 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Galahad Kid 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Pitaman 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 3 Pachi 15.00 3.8 7-1
4 2 Rahfee Town 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 5 Givin Up None 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Demand Ransom 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Azrael 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Duchossois 3.00 1.2 2-1
10 7 Bullion 12.00 2.8 5-1
7 5 Dollar Blue 4.00 4 8-1
9 6 Antrim’s Giant 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 First Masamune 4.00 6.6 13-1
5 3 English Challenge 6.00 8.2 16-1
6 4 Hardly a Secret 10.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 Fade Away 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Barleewon 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Krewe Chief 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Slick Silver 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.