Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 31, 2021

July 31, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Night Things 12.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Its My Bag Baby 8.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Get Hammered 3.00 1.9 4-1
8 7 Lastchanceatglory 4.00 3 6-1
3 3 Dive Deep 3.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Change Direction 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Dark Ninja 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Finnegan (IRE) 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Angelino 6.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Can’t Hide From Me 1.20 2.2 4-1
2 2 One Way Home 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Deano 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Croce d’Oro 15.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Christian C 3.50 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Temrik 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 6 Seven Seventeen 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 4 Hoosier Gold Case 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Angel’s Run 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 3 Catnip Kitten 8.00 5.4 10-1
2 1 Close to Me 1.80 5.8 11-1
1 1 Don’t Hold Queens 8.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Rejoice an Be Glad 15.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Command Point 6.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Caroline’s Story 3.50 3 6-1
8 8 Princess Cora 15.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Slime Queen 3.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) 4.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Chrome Attack 5.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Indicia 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Gramercy 6.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Upbeat Melody 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Amanofmystature 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Savage 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Medal of Fact 3.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Coco Bravado 20.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Kosher Cowboy 4.50 4.9 9-1
7 7 Stormin El Prado 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Ignited 2.50 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Unpredictable Bay 5.00 1.2 2-1
3 2 Fore Flag 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Baltic Fleet 10.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Russian Tank 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 Sport Pepper 2.50 3.3 6-1
6 5 Degree of Risk 3.50 3.4 6-1
7 6 Rocket Man Attack 10.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Clemson Tiger 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 McRags 4.50 1.3 2-1
6 5 Creative Letters 15.00 3.4 6-1
7 6 Gate Crew 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 7 Groom Lake 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Texas Gano 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Hawk of War 2.50 4.4 8-1
5 4 Relmbunkus Syr 12.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Major Wager 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Lasten Impression 12.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Toussaint 20.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Macho Classic 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Moon Flash 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Nip N Tuck 3.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Carson Rules 6.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Clear to Close 15.00 6 11-1
8 8 Three Amigos (FR) 3.50 7.7 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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