July 30, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Chopper | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Irish Lighted Road | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fast One | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Last Spring | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wellfield | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pachi | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Three Birds | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Be Authentic | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kuringai | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Little Chick | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Way too Smarte | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Satiate | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ioya Again | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Andreas | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Land Mark Deal | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Iwillpersevere | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tuff Attack | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Temper Tantrum | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Coming Up Aces | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My My Munny | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fine Cotton | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sharp Hero | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Joan’s Way | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Colorofacloud | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hippie Cowgirl | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Winning Quality | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | New Rules | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | I Juana Hero | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Backside Beauty | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ozette | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Me too Mo | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Bobbie too Too | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Nice and True | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Cachaco | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lord Bolston | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tea After Ballet | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chocolate Bunny | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Delft Blue | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Rocket Ride | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gagoots | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 2 | Zarmae | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Dick the Bruiser | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Semi Charmed Day | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Link to Destiny | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Zawadi | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 1 | Draw the Line | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Eye of the Cat | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourre’ Trick | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Musical Theatre | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Admiral Returns | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | New Dawn | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Mommas Boy Otis | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rocket Hotshot | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | New Year Surprise | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.